Source: Politics<\/p>\n
President Joe Biden and Florida Democrats have made a lot of noise about trying to reverse the state\u2019s six-week abortion ban, which went into effect on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
But Florida presents a significant \u2014 and unusual \u2014 hurdle for a ballot referendum that could deal the pro-abortion-rights movement their first electoral loss since the fall of Roe v. Wade.<\/p>\n
Abortion rights have been on a winning streak with voters ever since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. In both blue and red states<\/a>, in every statewide referendum<\/a>, the pro-abortion rights side has won. Florida, however, requires ballot measures to get 60 percent voter support to pass. Reproductive rights groups have hit that mark in liberal bastions of California and Vermont \u2014 and fallen short of that elsewhere, from swingy Michigan to red-leaning Ohio and Kansas.<\/p>\n \u201cIt won\u2019t be easy,\u201d state House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell said of the threshold during a Biden campaign stop at the end of April. \u201cWe will need Floridians from across the political spectrum to speak up and we will need allies bringing attention to our fight here in Florida.\u201d The race to clear 60 percent for Amendment 4 \u2014 or, in the case of anti-abortion activists, to keep support under that mark \u2014 could be the most defining characteristic of the battle in Florida. That threshold, combined with the state\u2019s strict six-week abortion ban that went into effect on Wednesday, could supercharge what will already be the most closely watched referendum into a fight that has the potential to become the most expensive abortion-rights ballot measure to date. And Democrats widely view this vote as not only an important policy win, but as potentially their winning ticket politically in a state that has slipped away. Florida\u2019s changing abortion landscape is jolting interest at the very top of the ticket with Biden making a stop here last week and Vice President Kamala Harris heading in Wednesday.<\/p>\n Yet anti-abortion advocates have mounds of evidence for betting that Florida could buck the trend and tip in their favor, even though presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, a Florida resident, is staying out of the state\u2019s fight so far and has shown he thinks his party is vulnerable<\/a> when it comes to strict restrictions.<\/p>\n Early polling shows<\/a> a chunk of voters who would be needed to get the referendum over the finish line haven\u2019t decided what to do, meaning both sides have time to shape public opinion. Recent polling also shows Floridians don\u2019t see abortion as being as salient to their vote as issues like the economy or immigration.<\/p>\n Florida Republicans, who have a huge fundraising advantage over Democrats, have promised to counter-message aggressively to get Floridians to vote \u201cno\u201d in November. They\u2019ve called the referendum \u201cextreme\u201d and Republican Party of Florida Chair Evan Power said on April 1 the party will \u201cfight to inform voters on the dangers of this amendment,\u201d but this week declined to discuss specific strategy so far ahead of the election.<\/p>\n If the referendum passes, abortion would be legal in Florida until viability, which is generally considered to be around 24 weeks into a pregnancy. Abortion would also be legal later in a pregnancy under undefined \u201chealth\u201d circumstances.<\/p>\n Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won reelection by almost 20 points in 2022, has pledged to get involved in the opposition push, a commitment he made again during a stop in Tampa on Tuesday. He and other Republicans predict that Floridians will balk when they learn that the referendum gives broad leeway to health care providers to determine the circumstances under which abortions late in a pregnancy would be allowed.<\/p>\n Abortion-rights groups will also have to contend with Florida\u2019s increasingly red tilt: the GOP has out-registered Democrats by about 900,000 active voters \u2014 a gap that has only grown in recent years<\/a>.<\/p>\n Most abortion-rights advocates readily acknowledge they\u2019ll need to get Republican and independent voters to support the amendment if they want it to pass, and Florida Democrats said they plan to get messaging out across generations, beginning with college campuses.<\/p>\n But many also say everything will change for people on Wednesday, when the law making abortion illegal after six weeks of pregnancy takes effect. The law has exceptions for life-threatening pregnancy complications and, within 15 weeks of pregnancy, in cases of rape, incest and human trafficking.<\/p>\n By November\u2019s election, voters will have lived six months under the new restrictions. Because over 90 percent of abortions happen during the first 13 weeks of pregnancy, per federal health data<\/a>, Florida\u2019s previous 15-week limit that\u2019s been in effect since July 2022<\/a> may not have registered with many residents. In contrast, many women don\u2019t realize they\u2019re pregnant at six weeks.<\/p>\n \u201cUnfortunately, the stories are going to tell themselves,\u201d Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said in an interview. \u201cYou’re going to start hearing the heartbreaking stories coming out of Florida, of women that are going to have to make this ultimate decision.\u201d<\/p>\n Leading the push to first get the referendum passed is Floridians Protecting Freedom, which began as a coalition of pro-abortion rights groups including Planned Parenthood and the ACLU of Florida.<\/p>\n It formed after DeSantis signed the six-week ban into law just over a year ago, and the group has since launched the \u201cYes on 4<\/a>\u201d campaign, which is led by Lauren Brenzel. In a phone interview, Brenzel said a \u201cmajor media campaign\u201d was in the works using print, TV and digital ads, though she didn\u2019t specify what they\u2019d say or how much the group would spend in a state that\u2019s notoriously expensive to advertise in.<\/p>\n Fundraising for the amendment has picked up significantly since the high court ruling, with plenty of contributions coming from outside the state, Brenzel said. The group had raised $17.9 million by the end of March, according to state elections data, and it spent far less money than a cannabis legalization effort to get on the November ballot. And on Tuesday, an organization tied to Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, said it was kicking in $500,000 to the campaign<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThe reality is that we are the third-largest state in the nation, and [donors] know that we can’t deny that many people access to care,\u201d Brenzel said. \u201cWhat we’ve seen since our qualification is a real shift towards the importance of funding Florida’s ballot initiative effort for abortion access.\u201d<\/p>\n As evidence of support, the campaign also points to thousands of volunteers that have come out to help \u2014 and how 150,000 Republican voters<\/a> lent their signatures to get an abortion referendum on the ballot. Brenzel adds that the 60 percent voter threshold is not new for Florida, with the requirement approved by voters statewide in 2006.<\/p>\n \u201cWe always knew that we\u2019re going to face the 60 percent hurdle, and for us we also knew that we had the electorate to do that,\u201d Brenzel said. \u201cThe reality is that abortion bans are incredibly unpopular, and that Floridians don\u2019t want their politicians involved in these medical decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n On the other side of the debate, anti-abortion groups plan to hammer the language on Florida\u2019s ballot<\/a>, which stipulates that health care providers can use their judgment to evaluate when abortion is \u201cnecessary to protect the patient\u2019s health\u201d and when a fetus is viable. Some health care providers working in states without gestational limits have taken a broader view than others<\/a>, though abortion-rights advocates point out many of the cases involve devastating, life-threatening medical diagnoses.<\/p>\n