{"id":125082,"date":"2025-03-14T14:17:34","date_gmt":"2025-03-14T14:17:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=125082"},"modified":"2025-03-14T14:17:34","modified_gmt":"2025-03-14T14:17:34","slug":"bitcoin-to-gold-ratio-breaks-12-year-support-as-gold-price-hits-a-record-3k","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=125082","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU\/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView\/NorthStar
\nPopular analyst NorthStar\u00a0says this breakdown could spell the end of Bitcoin\u2019s 12-year bull run if it stays under the gold trendline for even a week or\u2014worse\u2014a month.
\nIs Bitcoin\u2019s bull market over? Let\u2019s take a closer look at BTC\u2019s correlation with gold.
\nGold hits new record high as Bitcoin\u2019s uptrend cools
\nThe BTC\/XAU ratio breakdown occurred as spot gold rates hit a new record high above $3,000 per ounce on March 14, after rising by about 12.80% year-to-date.
\nIn contrast, Bitcoin, which is often called \u201cdigital gold,\u201d has dropped by 11% so far in 2025.
\nBTC\/USD vs. XAU\/USD YTD performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe performances reflect the contrasting net flows into US-based spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) tracking Bitcoin and gold.
\nFor instance, as of March 14, the US-based spot gold ETFs had collectively attracted over $6.48 billion YTD, according to data resource World Gold Council. Globally, gold ETFs have seen $23.18 billion in inflows.
\nGold ETFs weekly holdings by region. Source: GoldHub.comOn the other hand, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $1.46 billion in outflows YTD, according to onchain data platform Glassnode.
\nUS Bitcoin ETFs year-to-date net flows. Source: Glassnode The driving force behind this divergence lies in growing macroeconomic uncertainty and risk-off sentiment, exacerbated by President Donald Trump\u2019s aggressive trade policies.
\nRelated: Bitcoin panic selling costs new investors $100M in 6 weeks \u2014 Research
\nNew tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
\nMeanwhile, central banks, including those in the US, China, and the UK, have accelerated their gold purchases, further boosting gold prices.
\nCountries that acquired the most gold so far in 2025. Source: GoldHub.comIn contrast, Bitcoin is mirroring the broader risk-on market. As of March 14, its 52-week correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq Composite index was 0.76.
\nBTC\/USD vs. Nasdaq Composite 52-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingViewHas Bitcoin price topped?
\nThe current Bitcoin-to-gold breakdown aligns with historical patterns, particularly the March 2021\u2013March 2022 fractal, which preceded the last bear market.
\nAt that time, the BTC\/XAU ratio exhibited a bearish divergence, characterized by rising prices juxtaposed against a declining relative strength index (RSI). This pattern suggested diminishing upward momentum.
\nBTC\/XAU ratio two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewConsequently, the ratio initially retreated toward the 50-period, two-week exponential moving average (EMA) support level before ultimately plummeting by 60%.
\nThat BTC\/XAU breakdown period coincided with Bitcoin\u2019s 68% correction against the US dollar.
\nBTC\/USD two-week performance chart. Source: TradingViewBTC\/XAU has once again completed a two-phase EMA retest, echoing the 2021\u20132022 fractal.
\nBTC\/USD two-week performance chart (zoomed). Source: TradingViewWith the RSI showing bearish divergence, momentum appears to be fading, increasing the probability of further declines, especially if the ratio drops decisively below the 50-2W EMA support (~26 XAU).
\nAs a result, it could also indicate Bitcoin\u2019s increased vulnerability to price declines in dollar terms, with the 50-2W EMA below $65,000 acting as the next potential downside target.
\nBTC\/USD 2W price performance chart. Source: TradingViewThat is down about 40% from Bitcoin\u2019s record high of around $110,000 established in January.
\nStill, Nansen analysts consider such a decline as a \u201ccorrection within a bull market,\u201d raising possibilities of a bullish\u00a0revival if the 50-2W EMA holds as support. However, a definitive break below the EMA could thrust Bitcoin into bear market territory.
\nThat could drag Bitcoin\u2019s 2025 downside target toward the 200-period two-week EMA (the blue wave) to as low as $34,850 if this Bitcoin-gold fractal repeats.
\nThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) breached a rising support trendline against gold (XAU), which has been intact for over 12 years, on March 14. XAU\/BTC ratio weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView\/NorthStar… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125082"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=125082"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/125082\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=125082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=125082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=125082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}