Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) limps into the end of Q1 on 13% losses as fresh macroeconomic volatility looms.<\/p>\n
BTC price action risks a fresh dip below $80,000 as new US trade tariffs weigh on risk-asset sentiment.
\nCrypto traders\u2019 tariff woes focus on April 2, dubbed\u00a0 \u201cLiberation Day\u201d by US President Donald Trump, while gold heads higher.
\nDespite the doom and gloom, Bitcoin has had a relatively mild March, while Q1 threatens to be its worst in seven years.
\nProfitability currently points the way to a bull market drawdown with no realistic bottom in sight.
\nThe Coinbase Premium puts up a fight amid the price dip, suggesting that panic sellers have already exited.<\/p>\n
BTC price: \u201cBearish engulfing\u201d sets the tone Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) limps into the end of Q1 on 13% losses as fresh macroeconomic volatility looms. BTC price action risks a fresh dip below $80,000 as new US… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126134"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126134\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nBitcoin traders are on edge this week as US trade tariffs follow the monthly and quarterly candle closes.
\nA recipe for risk-asset volatility has many market participants bracing for the worst as BTC price action edges increasingly close to $80,000.
\nThe lowest levels in two weeks at about $81,200 accompanied the March 30 weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed.
\n\u201cIn LTF, the first noticeable thing is this new wick to the downside,\u201d trader CrypNuevo responded on X.\u00a0
\n\u201cThe odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewFellow trading account HTL-NL noted a \u201cbearish engulfing\u201d candle on the weekly chart.
\n\u201cLet’s see if it plays out,\u201d he told X followers.
\nBTC\/USD 1-week chart. Source: HTL-NL\/XThe picture on longer timeframes, per trading resource Barchart, is no better unless the risk-asset landscape improves.
\nBitcoin and US stocks are headed for so-called \u201cdeath crosses,\u201d it warned prior to the Wall Street open, as short-term losses catch up to the broader uptrend.
\n\u201cWhat if price action is red heading into those Death Crosses with the actual Crosses marking the bottom like we’ve seen many times before?\u201d Barchart queried.
\nBTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassA look at exchange order book data from monitoring resource CoinGlass meanwhile shows bid and ask liquidity clustered tightly around price.\u00a0
\nContinuing, CrypNuevo paid particular attention to the 50-day and 50-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).
\n\u201cSeeing some compression between the 1W50EMA and 1D50EMA which always leads to an aggressive move,\u201d he observed.\u00a0
\n\u201cIt might take a bit more time based on previous cases. It’s also quite common seeing multiple and consecutives retests of this bull market support.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 1-day chart with 50-day, 50-week EMA. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewD-Day for US tariffs precedes jobs data onslaught
\nUS employment data and Federal Reserve officials are among the key events on the radar for risk-asset traders this week.
\nJob openings, jobless claims and nonfarm payrolls are all due, with the first round of numbers released on April 2.
\nThis may be overshadowed by the start of new US trade tariffs set to begin on the same day. As Cointelegraph continues to report, crypto remains highly sensitive to tariff news, with Trump giving mixed messages as to which measures will ultimately come into force.
\nIn a dedicated X thread on the topic, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted that tariffs may impact about $1.5 trillion worth of US imports by the end of the month.
\n\u201cPresident Trump has been discussing this Wednesday, April 2nd, for weeks. This is a day that he has named \u2018Liberation Day\u2019 where widespread new tariffs are coming,\u201d it wrote.\u00a0
\n\u201cWe believe April 2nd will be the biggest escalation of the trade war to date. Markets are in for a wild week.\u201d
\nUS Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Source: The Kobeissi Letter\/XKobeissi pointed to unusually high levels of market uncertainty, as represented by the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index.
\nWith many a surprise to come, market commentators are not the only ones in \u201cwait and see\u201d mode.
\nApril 4 will see Fed Chair Powell take to the stage with a speech on the economic outlook at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing (SABEW) Annual Conference in Arlington, Virginia.
\nEarlier this month, Powell said that while it was not easy to pin inflation pressures on tariffs, he was in no hurry to lower interest rates \u2014 the key move awaited by risk-asset traders.
\nThe latest estimates from CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool continue to favor the Fed\u2019s June meeting as the date of the next rate cut.
\nFed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME GroupBitcoin rounds off a limp Q1
\nAs both the monthly and quarterly candles prepare to close, Bitcoin is looking at a distinctly uninspiring mid-term performance.
\nData from CoinGlass shows BTC\/USD down 12.7% in Q1 at the time of writing, making it the worst first quarter of the year since 2018.
\nBTC\/USD quarterly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassConditions have worsened for hodlers thanks to gold outperforming as a safe-haven bet, hitting repeated all-time highs while BTC\/USD fell 30% from its January peak.
\nThat bull market correction, however, remains fairly standard in a historical perspective. Data from onchain analytics firm Glassnode confirms that the maximum drawdown in previous bull markets passed 60%.
\n\u201cThis cycle continues to be the least volatile of all,\u201d it acknowledged in February.
\nBitcoin bull market drawdowns. Source: GlassnodeOthers agree that despite the frustrating lack of further price upside, Bitcoin has weathered the macroeconomic storm fairly well.
\n\u201cOverall quarter not horrible,\u201d trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized about the CoinGlass figures this weekend.
\nOn a monthly basis, the picture remains far from the most bearish BTC price scenarios \u2014 2.7% losses since March 1, making for a fairly average third month of the year.
\nBTC\/USD monthly returns (screenshot). Source: CoinGlassMVRV Ratio lacks \u201cdefinitive bottom signal\u201d
\nA key Bitcoin price metric continues to give off warning signals this week as the market flushes out \u201coverheated\u201d conditions.
\nThe market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, which compares the market cap to realized cap to determine short-term and long-term profitability, is trending back toward its long-term average.
\nIn early March, the tool printed a so-called \u201cdeath cross\u201d \u2014 its short-term moving average crossed below a long-term equivalent, in keeping with the profit drawdown sparked by Bitcoin\u2019s descent below $80,000.
\n\u201cMuch like in previous cycles, this cross was followed by a price decline after Bitcoin hit a local peak, reinforcing the MVRV’s effectiveness as a market sentiment indicator,\u201d Yonsei Dent, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its \u201cQuicktake\u201d blog posts on March 30.
\n\u201cWith the MVRV now converging toward its long-term historical average, it appears the market has exited the overheated zone. However, no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.\u201d\u00a0
\nBitcoin MVRV momentum chart. Source: CryptoQuantDent suggested that while current behavior mimics past BTC price cycles, market participants \u201cshould remain cautious of further downside risk.\u201d
\nLast month, analysis predicted that Bitcoin still has room for\u00a0fresh all-time highs on longer timeframes, based on MVRV ratio data.
\nCoinbase traders keep the faith
\nThe return of the Coinbase Premium has been painfully slow this quarter as episodes of panic selling characterized recent market behavior.
\nRelated: $65K Bitcoin price targets pile up as ‘Spoofy the Whale’ buys the dip
\nThe Premium, which is the difference in spot price between the Coinbase BTC\/USD and Binance BTC\/USDT pairs, currently hovers around neutral.
\nWhile unremarkable in and of itself, the metric\u2019s resilience to ongoing BTC price pressure caught the eye of CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Sunmoon.
\n\u201cPanic selling is decreasing,\u201d he concluded in another Quicktake post this weekend.
\nA positive Premium reflects increasing US investor confidence in adding BTC exposure and is traditionally a key ingredient in sustainable Bitcoin bull markets.
\nMeanwhile, its resistance to the downside in the face of falling prices leads Sunmoon to suspect a \u201cpossible trend reversal.\u201d
\nBitcoin Coinbase Premium. Source: CryptoQuantThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"