Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) faces conditions similar to the 2022 bear market bottom as US business sees \u201cvery high risk\u201d to come.
\nIn his latest analysis, Charles Edwards, the founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, queried when the US would start printing money.<\/p>\n
\u201dHigher than expected\u201d US tariffs pressure Bitcoin Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) faces conditions similar to the 2022 bear market bottom as US business sees \u201cvery high risk\u201d to come. In his latest analysis, Charles Edwards, the founder… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126374"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126374"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126374\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126374"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126374"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126374"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nBitcoin reacted noticeably worse than US stocks after President Donald Trump announced worldwide reciprocal trade tariffs on April 2.
\nBTC\/USD fell up to 8.5% on the day, while the S&P 500 managed to end the Wall Street trading session 0.7% higher.
\nDespite this, Edwards notes that US business expectations reflect the type of uncertainty seen only three times since the turn of the millennium.
\n\u201cConsider this as tariffs come in higher than expected. The Philly Fed Business Outlook survey is showing expectations today comparable to 2000, 2008 and 2022,\u201d he told X followers.
\nAn accompanying chart showed the Philadelphia Fed\u2019s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) back under 15 for the first time since the start of 2024. Late 2022, meanwhile, was the pit of the most recent crypto bear market when BTC\/USD reversed at $15,600.
\nPhiladelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey vs. S&P 500. Source: Charles Edwards\/XIn Capriole\u2019s latest market update on March 31, Edwards acknowledged that BOS data can produce unreliable signals over market sentiment but argued that it should not be ignored.
\n\u201cWhile no guarantee of the future outlook (this metric does have false signals) this is a data reading we have had before at very high risk zones (year 2000, 2008 and 2022), telling us to keep a very open mind,\u201d he wrote.\u00a0
\n\u201cEspecially if the tariff war escalates significantly beyond current expectations or corporate margins start to fall.\u201d
\nFor Bitcoin, a key level to watch in the tariff aftermath is $91,000, with Capriole suggesting that US macroeconomic moves would \u201cdecide the ultimate technical trend from here.\u201d
\n\u201cAll else equal, a daily close above $91K would be a strong bullish reclaim signal,\u201d the update explained alongside the weekly BTC\/USD chart.\u00a0
\n\u201cFailing that, a dip into the $71K zone would likely see a sizable bounce.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 1-day chart (screenshot). Source: Capriole InvestmentsBTC price focus on US liquidity trend
\nAs Cointelegraph reported, a silver lining for crypto and risk assets could come in the form of increasing global liquidity.
\nRelated: Bitcoin sales at $109K all-time high ‘significantly below’ cycle tops \u2014 Glassnode
\nIn the US, the Fed has already begun to loosen tight financial policy, with bets on a return to so-called quantitative easing (QE) varying.
\n\u201cHow long until the Powell printer starts humming?\u201d Edwards queried.
\nM2 money supply, meanwhile, is due for an \u201cinflux\u201d \u2014 something which has historically spawned major BTC price upside.
\n\u201cThe BIG take-away (the most important observation) is that a big M2 influx is coming. The exact date is less important,\u201d popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto predicted in an X thread this week.
\nA comparative chart hinted at a potential BTC price rebound by the start of May.
\nUS M2 money supply vs BTC\/USD chart. Source: Colin Talks Crypto\/XThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"