{"id":126509,"date":"2025-04-05T02:18:16","date_gmt":"2025-04-05T02:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=126509"},"modified":"2025-04-05T02:18:16","modified_gmt":"2025-04-05T02:18:16","slug":"bitcoin-traders-prepare-for-rally-to-100k-as-decoupling-and-gold-leads-btc-trend-takes-shape","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=126509","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin traders prepare for rally to $100K as \u2018decoupling\u2019 and \u2018gold leads BTC\u2019 trend takes shape"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.Source: Cory Bates \/ X
\nThe \u201cgold leads, Bitcoin follows\u201d relationship is starting
\nBitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump\u2019s April 2 global tariff announcement.
\nWhile BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold\u2014after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3\u2014has slipped 4.8%.
\nBTC\/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 daily performance chart. Source: TradingViewThe fresh divergence is fueling the \u201cgold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,\u201d taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.
\nGold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.
\nBTC\/USD vs. XAU\/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView\u201cA reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,\u201d said market analyst MacroScope, adding:
\n\u201cAs in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.
\nThe outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.
\nSource: Mike Alfred \/ XBitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap
\nBitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC\/XAU) ratio.
\nThe BTC\/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.
\nBTC\/XAU ratio two-week chart. Source: TradingViewBTC\/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.
\nIn the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC\/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.
\nInterestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin\u2019s value in dollar terms, as shown below.
\nBTC\/USD 2W price chart. Source: TradingViewShould the fractal repeat, Bitcoin\u2019s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.
\nA bounce from BTC\/XAU\u2019s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.
\nUS recession would squash Bitcoin\u2019s bullish outlook
\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin\u2019s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.
\nInvestors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a\u00a0US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.
\nRelated: Bitcoin \u2018decouples,\u2019 stocks lose $3.5T amid Trump tariff war and Fed warning of \u2018higher inflation\u2019
\nFurther dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.
\nPowell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin\u2019s upside momentum.
\nNonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed\u2019s September meeting, according to CME data.
\nThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126509"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126509"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126509\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126509"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126509"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126509"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}