{"id":126545,"date":"2025-04-05T22:15:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-05T22:15:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=126545"},"modified":"2025-04-05T22:15:31","modified_gmt":"2025-04-05T22:15:31","slug":"kalshi-traders-place-the-odds-of-us-recession-in-2025-at-over-61","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=126545","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi traders place the odds of US recession in 2025 at over 61%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsTraders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on April 2.<br \/>\nKalshi uses the standard criteria of a recession, two business quarters of negative gross domestic product (GDP) growth, as reported by the United States Department of Commerce.<br \/>\nOdds of a US recession on the prediction platform have nearly doubled since March 20 and mirror the current 2025 US recession odds on Polymarket, which traders on the platform currently place at 60%.<br \/>\nThe macroeconomic outlook for 2025 deteriorated rapidly following US President Donald Trump&#8217;s sweeping tariff order and the ensuing sell-off in capital markets, sparking fears of a prolonged bear market.<br \/>\nOdds of US recession in 2025 top 60% on the Kalshi prediction market. Source: kalshiRelated: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as \u2018World War 3 of trade wars\u2019 crushes US stocks<br \/>\nTrump&#8217;s executive order throws markets in disarray<br \/>\nThe US President&#8217;s executive order established a 10% baseline tariff rate for all countries and different &#8220;reciprocal&#8221; tariff rates on trading partners with existing tariffs on US import goods.<br \/>\nTrump&#8217;s announcement triggered an immediate stock market sell-off, wiping away over $5 trillion in shareholder value in a matter of days.<br \/>\nFears of a recession continue to grow as market analysts warn of a potentially protracted trade war that negatively impacts global markets and suppresses risk asset prices, including cryptocurrencies.<br \/>\nMeanwhile, President Trump has expressed confidence that the tariffs will strengthen the US economy long-term and correct any trade imbalances.<br \/>\n&#8220;The markets are going to boom,&#8221; the President said on April 3, describing the current market sell-off as an expected part of the process.<br \/>\nThe stock market sell-off continues as stocks shed trillions in shareholder value. Source: TradingViewAsset manager Anthony Pompliano recently speculated that President Trump deliberately crashed markets to bring down interest rates.<br \/>\nPompliano cited the reduction in 10-year US Treasury bonds as evidence that the President&#8217;s strategy of forcing a recession to impact rates is working.<br \/>\nInterest rates on 10-year US Treasury bonds declined from approximately 4.66% in January 2025 to just 4.00% on April 5. President Trump is also pressuring Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell to lower short-term interest rates.<br \/>\n&#8220;This would be a perfect time for Fed chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates,&#8221; Trump wrote in an April 4 Truth Social post.<br \/>\nMagazine: Financial nihilism in crypto is over \u2014 It\u2019s time to dream big again<a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/odds-us-recession-2025-over-61-kalshi?utm_source=rss_feed&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"feedzy-rss-link-icon\" rel=\"noopener\">Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsTraders on the Kalshi prediction market place the odds of a US recession in 2025 at 61%, following the sweeping tariff order signed by President Donald Trump on&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126545"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=126545"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/126545\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=126545"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=126545"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=126545"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}