Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April.<\/p>\n
BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term resistance trend line without success as trade war concerns dictate traders\u2019 expectations.
\nTariffs are the key macroeconomic topic of the week as risk assets brace for potential surprise headlines.
\nBitcoin ETFs lost almost $800 million in a week, while Strategy indicates it has purchased the dip.
\nDespite tariff pressures, the weakness of the US dollar could be a blessing in disguise for Bitcoin and risky assets.
\nGlobal M2 money supply is at an all-time high and rising \u2014 will Bitcoin follow history and replicate its past?<\/p>\n
Bulls battle a key BTC price resistance line
\nWith traders on the lookout for tariff-related volatility this week, BTC price analysis is zooming out.
\nBTC\/USD closed last week up 6.7%, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.
\nBTC\/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewNext, however, comes the real test \u2014 breaking beyond a downward-sloping trend line that has capped the upside for months.<\/p>\n
$BTC – #Bitcoin: I\u2019m watching this chart closely. We might be ready. pic.twitter.com\/Dtv1jkrzkP\u2014 Crypto Caesar (@CryptoCaesarTA) April 12, 2025<\/p>\n
\u201cRejected at key resistance, following the trendline perfectly,\u201d popular trader Bitbull wrote in his latest post on the topic on X.\u00a0
\n\u201cIf the breakdown continues, eyes on the $70K-$72K support zone for a possible bounce.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 12-hour chart. Source: Bitbull\/XFellow trader and analyst Rekt Capital is also eyeing the trend line as a breakout proves hard to confirm.
\n\u201cBitcoin has Daily Closed above the Downtrend. Thus, breakout confirmation is underway,\u201d he told X followers at the weekend.
\n\u201cHowever BTC has previously Daily Closed above the Downtrend but failed its retest (a few of the red circles). Retest needs to be successful and it is in progress.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 1-day chart. Source: Rekt Capital\/XPopular trader AK47 on X posted separate upside and downside BTC price targets depending on the outcome of the trend line retest.
\n\u201c$BTC might push to $88K\u2014but don\u2019t get too comfy,\u201d he cautioned.
\n\u201cCould be a fakeout, grabbing liquidity before dipping to $81K for that inverse head & shoulders setup. If that plays out, $95K\u2013$100K isn\u2019t far.\u201d
\nBTC\/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: AK47\/XTariff talk keeps markets on edge
\nA quieter week for US macroeconomic data leaves initial jobless claims as the highlight while the ongoing trade war continues to dominate.
\nWith China particularly in focus, risk assets and crypto face flash volatility should more surprises involving trade tariffs surface.
\nThe weekend saw snap relief in that respect as US President Donald Trump announced a pause on tariffs for key tech products. As a result, Bitcoin climbed to eleven-day highs above $86,000.
\nSubsequent indications that the measures would be temporary then put renewed pressure on stocks\u2019 futures, while BTC\/USD retreated to circle $84,000 at the time of writing.
\n\u201cWe think the \u2018tariff exemptions\u2019 announced this weekend were originally intended to be temporary,\u201d trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of an X reaction.\u00a0
\n\u201cThe goal was to bring treasury yields back down before resuming the trade war.\u201d
\nS&P 500 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewKobeissi suggested that markets had originally considered the move as a signal that the trade war might end completely, only to be disappointed a day later.
\n\u201cBonds will likely still rally along with stocks, but uncertainty has only grown. The bond market is king,\u201d it added.
\nContinuing, trading firm Mosaic Asset agreed that bonds may have been crucial in altering policy trajectory last week.
\n\u201cIt\u2019s the volatility in other areas of the markets like currencies and Treasury bonds that might have forced a quick pivot on trade and tariff policy,\u201d it summarized in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, \u201cThe Market Mosaic,\u201d on April 13.
\n\u201cThe uncertainty around tariffs has become a binary and unpredictable event for the stock market. Signs of tensions fuel further downside, while an easing of tensions sends stocks sharply in the other direction.\u201d
\nBitcoin ETF outflow \u201cbarely registers\u201d
\nA sign of just how turbulent last week came in the form of net flows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
\nIn one of the worst weeks ever for the ETF products since their debut in early 2024, total outflows passed $750 million.
\nFor network economist Timothy Peterson, however, there is little to worry about.
\nZooming out, he noted that even a nine-figure drawdown such as this makes hardly any difference to the overall investment pool that the ETFs have created in little more than a year.
\n\u201cLast week, US Bitcoin ETFs had their 5th worst week ever (in terms of outflows).\u00a0Over $700 million. Yet it barely registers as a blip on the chart,\u201d he told X followers.\u00a0
\n\u201cThat’s how big Bitcoin has become. That’s how sticky these investments are.\u201d
\nUS spot Bitcoin ETF balances. Source: Timothy Peterson\/XAmong major investors seeking to \u201cbuy the dip,\u201d meanwhile, is business intelligence firm Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that it was upping its BTC exposure this weekend.
\n\u201cNo Tariffs on Orange Dots,\u201d he wrote in an X post alongside a chart of Strategy\u2019s acquisitions.\u00a0
\nStrategy Bitcoin holdings data. Source: Michael SaylorHowever, whether Bitcoin will emerge as an attractive proposition for the institutional investor cohort while trade war uncertainty continues is dubious.
\nA survey by Bank of America in late March showed that respondents overwhelmingly favored gold as a volatility hedge, with 58% choosing it.
\n\u201cThis compares to just 9% for 30-year Treasury Bonds and 3% for Bitcoin,\u201d Kobeissi wrote while reporting on the findings.\u00a0
\n\u201cThrow in the US deficit spending crisis and gold quickly becomes the only global safe haven asset.\u201d
\nBoA survey results. Source: The Kobeissi Letter\/XDollar dive gives risk assets hope of relief
\nThe US dollar may yet provide some light at the end of the tunnel for wary risk-asset traders this week.
\nThe trade war has taken its toll on the greenback, and when measured against major trading partner currencies, its weakness is plain to see.
\nThe US dollar index (DXY) fell to three-year lows last week and, at the time of writing, is challenging those lows once more.<\/p>\n
Markets selling dollar even lower Monday. DXY fell through 100 and also the 2023 low over last few hours, now at lowest in 3 years pic.twitter.com\/MJ8wvvJuY2\u2014 David Ingles (@DavidInglesTV) April 14, 2025<\/p>\n
While far from constant, Bitcoin\u2019s relationship with dollar strength tends to show that gains occur after major DXY losses \u2014 albeit with a delay of several months. Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) is holding down the fort as the US trade war rages on into the third week of April. BTC price action attempts to overcome a long-term… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127123"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=127123"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127123\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=127123"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=127123"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=127123"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nTo that end, popular analytics account Bitcoindata21 is eyeing a repeat of events from 2017, resulting in BTC\/USD all-time highs at the end of the year.
\nUS dollar index (DXY) fractal. Source: Bitcoindata21\/XAnother chart uploaded to X at the weekend showed the relationship between DXY, Bitcoin and the S&P 500, providing ideal conditions for a long-term bottom in the latter.
\nThe last time such a signal came was around one month before the pit of the Bitcoin bear market in late 2022.
\n\u201cI got 99 problems but the DXY aint 1,\u201d Bitcoindata21 summarized.
\nBTC\/USD vs. S&P 500 vs. DXY chart. Source: Bitcoindata21\/XA bull market rebound in the making?
\nOn longer timeframes, an equally promising trend is playing out for Bitcoin bulls.
\nRelated: Bollinger Bands creator says Bitcoin forming ‘classic’ floor near $80K
\nThe global M2 money supply, with which Bitcoin price action is positively correlated, is seeking to break out beyond all-time highs.
\n\u201cGlobal M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row,\u201d popular analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted in a dedicated X post on the phenomenon this weekend.\u00a0
\n\u201cThis is a fantastic sign for what it signals will be coming into risk assets in ~108 days.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD vs. global M2 supply. Source: Colin Talks Crypto\/XThe post refers to a chain reaction in which sharp moves in global M2 spark copycat behavior for Bitcoin once the latency period expires.
\nBefore that, however, there may be a final opportunity to \u201cbuy the dip.\u201d
\n\u201cGlobal M2 (with a 108-day offset) doesn’t show a blast-off for another ~2 1\/2 weeks, and actually shows a slow bleed into next week until around April 16th or 17th,\u201d Colin Talks Crypto acknowledged.
\nEarlier this month, the analyst predicted a \u201cbig M2 influx\u201d incoming, with a corresponding BTC price rebound beginning in May.
\nThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"