{"id":127290,"date":"2025-04-16T11:18:04","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:18:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=127290"},"modified":"2025-04-16T11:18:04","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T11:18:04","slug":"crypto-in-a-bear-market-rebound-likely-in-q3-coinbase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=127290","title":{"rendered":"Crypto in a bear market, rebound likely in Q3 \u2014 Coinbase"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsA monthly market review by publicly traded US-based crypto exchange Coinbase shows that while the crypto market has contracted, it appears to be gearing up for a better quarter.
\nAccording to Coinbase\u2019s April 15 monthly outlook for institutional investors, the altcoin market cap shrank by 41% from its December 2024 highs of $1.6 trillion to $950 billion by mid-April. BTC Tools data shows that this metric touched a low of $906.9 billion on April 9 and stood at $976.9 billion at the time of writing.
\nVenture capital funding to crypto projects has reportedly decreased by 50%\u201360% from 2021\u201322. In the report, Coinbase\u2019s global head of research, David Duong, highlighted that a new crypto winter may be upon us.
\n\u201cSeveral converging signals may be pointing to the start of a new \u2018crypto winter\u2019 as some extreme negative sentiment has set in due to the onset of global tariffs and the potential for further escalations,\u201d he said.
\nRelated: How trade wars impact stocks and crypto
\nMacroeconomic woes cause crypto turmoil
\nThe report notes that lower venture capitalist interest \u201csignificantly limits the onboarding of new capital into the ecosystem,\u201d which is felt primarily in the altcoin sector. The cause of that, according to Duong, is the current macroeconomic environment:
\n\u201cAll of these structural pressures stem from the uncertainty of the broader macro environment, where traditional risk assets have faced sustained headwinds from fiscal tightening and tariff policies, contributing to the paralysis in investment decision making.\u201c
\nAccording to Coinbase researchers, those facts have resulted in \u201ca difficult cyclical outlook for the digital asset space,\u201d and warrant continued caution in the next four to six weeks. Still, the report\u2019s author said that the market is likely to change directions explosively:
\n\u201cWhen the sentiment finally resets, it\u2019s likely to happen rather quickly and we remain constructive for the second half of 2025.\u201c
\nDuong cited some metrics to indicate when the crypto market is moving between bull and bear market phases, including risk-adjusted performance and the 200-day moving average.
\nAnother metric was the Bitcoin (BTC) Z-score, which compares market value and realized value to identify overbought and oversold conditions. A Z-score shows how unusual current price performance is when compared to historic data.
\nBitcoin\u2019s risk-adjusted performance. Source: CoinbaseThis metric \u201cnaturally accounts for crypto\u2019s larger volatility,\u201d but it is also slow to react. This metric tends to generate few signals in stable markets. Coinbase\u2019s model, based on it, determined that the bull market ended in late February but has since deemed the market neutral.
\nCoinbase\u2019s Z-score Bitcoin model. Source: CoinbaseInstead, Coinbase\u2019s analyst suggested that the 200-day moving average is a better indicator for determining market trends. It smooths out short-term noise while being relevant by considering the last 200 days\u2019 worth of market data.
\nCoinbase\u2019s 200-day moving average Bitcoin model. Source: CoinbaseThe report also said that gauging the broader crypto market\u2019s trend by the direction in which Bitcoin is moving is increasingly less reliable. This is because crypto expands into new sectors with decentralized finance (DeFi), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), artificial intelligence agents, and more, all with particular market forces independent of Bitcoin.
\nRelated: Bitcoin\u2019s wide price range to continue, no longer a \u2019long only\u2019 bet \u2014 Analyst
\nAre we in a bear market?
\nDuong points out that the 200-day moving average suggests that Bitcoin\u2019s recent decline moved it into bear market territory in late March. Still, applying the same model to the Coin50 Coinbase index based on the top 50 crypto assets shows a bear market since the end of February.
\nCoinbase\u2019s 200-day moving average model applied to the Coin50 index. Source: CoinbaseRecent reports indicated that Bitcoin is showing growing resilience to macroeconomic headwinds compared with traditional financial markets. \u201cBitcoin\u2019s decline was comparatively modest, revisiting price levels from around the US election period, \u201caccording to Wintermute.
\nDuong sees Bitcoin becoming less of a generalized crypto indicator as a consequence of this trend. He wrote:
\n\u201cAs Bitcoin\u2019s role as a \u2018store of value\u2019 continues to grow, we think a holistic evaluation of crypto\u2019s aggregate market activity will be needed to better define bull and bear markets for the asset class.\u201c
\nMagazine: Bitcoin eyes $100K by June, Shaq to settle NFT lawsuit, and more: Hodler\u2019s Digest, April 6 \u2013 12Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsA monthly market review by publicly traded US-based crypto exchange Coinbase shows that while the crypto market has contracted, it appears to be gearing up for a better… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127290"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=127290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127290\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=127290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=127290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=127290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}