{"id":127531,"date":"2025-04-19T14:21:11","date_gmt":"2025-04-19T14:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=127531"},"modified":"2025-04-19T14:21:11","modified_gmt":"2025-04-19T14:21:11","slug":"xrp-to-revisit-its-1-realized-price-these-charts-paint-a-bearish-picture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=127531","title":{"rendered":"XRP to revisit its $1 'realized price'? These charts paint a bearish picture"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsXRP (XRP) has bounced nearly 30% after a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals now point to a deeper correction ahead.
\nXRP cup-and-handle pattern hints at 40% drop
\nXRP is forming a classic bearish reversal pattern that could see its price falling by at least 40% in the coming weeks.
\nDubbed inverse-cup-and-handle (IC&H), the pattern forms when the price rounds off in a curved descent (cup) followed by a brief consolidation phase (handle) \u2014 all atop a common neckline support level.
\nInverted cup-and-handle pattern illustrated. Source: MediumThe pattern is confirmed by a breakdown stage, where the price breaks decisively below support and falls by as much as the pattern\u2019s maximum height.
\nAs of April 19, XRP had entered the pattern\u2019s handle-formation phase, eyeing a decisive close below the neckline support at around $2. In this case, the primary downside target will likely be around $1.24, almost 40% below current prices.
\nXRP\/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingViewThe IC&H target aligns with XRP\u2019s 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) at around $1.28 \u2014 and further coincides with a November 2024 top.
\nAdditionally, veteran trader Peter Brandt suggests that XRP\u2019s market cap could drop by 50% in the coming weeks.
\nSource: Peter BrandtXRP onchain fractal hints at 50% correction
\nXRP\u2019s inverse cup-and-handle pattern is unfolding in line with its historical price behavior, signaling that its 2025 rally may have topped out.
\nFor instance, the cryptocurrency saw sharp pullbacks to its aggregated realized price following major surges in previous cycles, most notably in 2018 and 2021.
\nXRP realized price by age (aggregated). Source: GlassnodeFor traders, the realized price serves as a psychological benchmark, representing the average price at which the XRP supply was last moved.
\nWhen the market price trades well above this level, most holders are in profit, which can encourage complacency or profit-taking. Conversely, if the price nears the realized price, fear of losses tends to rise, and selling pressure can intensify.
\nIn 2025, XRP surged past $3.20 before losing steam, repeating patterns seen in past bull-to-bear cycles. The current realized price at around $1, a likely downside target in 2025 down about 50% from the current prices.
\nInterestingly, XRP\u2019s $1 realized price target is closer to its 200-week EMA (the blue wave in the chart below) at $0.81, a bear market target discussed in Cointelegraph\u2019s analysis in late March.
\nXRP\/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewAdding to the bearish outlook, over 80% of XRP addresses are currently in profit. The metric historically reached similar levels during previous market tops, often preceding significant rounds of profit-taking and pullbacks.
\nRelated: 81.6% of XRP supply is in profit, but traders in Korea are turning bearish \u2014 Here is why
\nXRP percent of addresses in profit. Source: GlassnodeIf history repeats, such similar conditions could incentivize traders to exit positions, accelerating XRP\u2019s retracement toward the realized price.
\nOdds of XRP hitting record highs are declining
\nSentiment around XRP reaching a new all-time high above the $3.55 level is deteriorating, according to prediction market data from Polymarket.
\nAs of April 19, the odds of XRP achieving this milestone before 2026 have dropped to just 35%, marking a sharp 25% decline from peak confidence levels in March, as shown below.
\nXRP all-time highs before 2026 odds. Source: PolymarketThe upside momentum in the crypto market has faded overall in April, coinciding with a broader decline in risk appetite driven by escalating global tariff tensions under Donald Trump\u2019s trade policies.
\nThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsXRP (XRP) has bounced nearly 30% after a four-month low of $1.61 amid rising tariff tensions. However, the rebound may be short-lived as technical patterns and on-chain signals… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127531"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=127531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/127531\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=127531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=127531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=127531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}