Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) is bracing for a major US macro data week as crypto market participants warn of serious volatility next.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin retests $92,000 after a promising weekly close, but traders still see a deeper BTC price correction to come.
\nA bumper week of US macro data comes with the Federal Reserve under pressure on multiple fronts.
\nThe Fed has its hands tied, analysis argues, predicting interest rates coming down, liquidity booming and BTC\/USD reaching $180,000 within eighteen months.
\nBitcoin short-term holders are back in the black, making current price levels especially pertinent for speculative investors.
\nSentiment is in neutral territory, but crowd-based FOMO may keep price from rising much higher, research concludes.<\/p>\n
Bitcoin traders wait for support retest
\nBitcoin is circling multimonth highs as the week gets underway, having tested $92,000 as support after the weekly close.
\nBTC\/USD 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewThat close itself was bullish, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms, coming in at just above the key yearly open level of $93,500.<\/p>\n
#BTC Can Bitcoin do it?Can Bitcoin Weekly Close above $93500 to start the process of regaining the previous Range?$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https:\/\/t.co\/r5reRJ0HFy pic.twitter.com\/5ga0gcSqX4\u2014 Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) April 27, 2025<\/p>\n
Forecasting an \u201cinteresting week\u201d to come, popular trader CrypNuevo eyed the potential for higher highs for BTC\/USD.
\n\u201cPretty simple – I don’t see momentum rolling over just yet and it’s possible to see a third leg up up $97k where there is some liquidity,\u201d he wrote in a thread on X.\u00a0
\n\u201cEventually, we should see a 4H50EMA retest that can be a potential support.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 4-hour chart with 50 EMA. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewCrypNuevo referred to the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) on 4-hour timeframes, currently at $91,850.
\nOn the topic of likely support retests, fellow trader Roman had a deeper retracement in mind.
\n\u201cWaiting to see what happens at 88k,\u201d he told X followers.\u00a0
\n\u201cNot a believer in breaking 94k resistance any time soon.\u201d
\nBTC\/USD 1-day chart with stochastic RSI data. Source: Cointelegraph\/TradingViewRoman reiterated that the stochastic relative strength index (RSI) metric remained heavily overbought, a sign that a cooling-off period for price may follow.
\nTrader and commentator Skew meanwhile focused on the area between $90,000 and $92,000, describing \u201cindecision\u201d in the market resulting in current price action.
\nBTC\/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Skew\/XGDP, PCE prints headline major macro week
\nIt\u2019s crunch time for US macroeconomic data and inflation progress this week, with a slew of numbers coming thick and fast.
\nQ1 GDP, nonfarm payrolls and tech earnings are all due, but the highlight will be the Federal Reserve\u2019s \u201cpreferred\u201d inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
\nSet for release on April 30, both PCE and GDP precede the monthly candle close, setting the stage for crypto and risk-asset volatility.
\nThe stakes are already high \u2014\u00a0US trade tariffs have resulted in wild swings both up and down for crypto, stocks and commodities, with seemingly no end in sight for now.
\n\u201cThis has been one of the most volatile years in history: The S&P 500 has seen a 2% move in either direction on 23% of trading days, or at least once a week so far this year,\u201d trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of ongoing X analysis.\u00a0
\n\u201cThis is the highest reading since 2022, when the share hit 29% for the full year. By comparison, the long-term average has been twice a month.\u201d
\nS&P 500 volatility data. Source: The Kobeissi Letter\/XInflation expectations are a key topic, meanwhile, with markets seeing interest rate cuts beginning in June despite the Fed itself staying hawkish.
\nThe latest data from CME Group\u2019s FedWatch Tool shows diverging opinions over what will result from the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
\nBy contrast, May\u2019s FOMC gathering is almost unanimously expected to deliver a freeze on the current Fed funds rate.
\nFed target rate probabilities for June FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group\u201cEvidence of a strong labor market and concerns over how tariffs could impact the inflation outlook is keeping the Fed on hold when it comes to interest rates,\u201d trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, \u201cThe Market Mosaic,\u201d on April 27.
\nReferencing FedWatch, Mosaic noted that \u201cmarket-implied odds are starting to shift in favor of more rate cuts through year-end.\u201d<\/p>\n
Crypto exec doubles down on $180K BTC price target Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBitcoin (BTC) is bracing for a major US macro data week as crypto market participants warn of serious volatility next. Bitcoin retests $92,000 after a promising weekly close,… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128098"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=128098"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128098\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=128098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=128098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=128098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nExisting macro data is already causing a stir for crypto market participants eyeing the long-term implications of current Fed policy.
\nIn his latest X analysis, hedge fund founder Dan Tapiero had a bold BTC price prediction in store for the coming eighteen months.
\n\u201cBtc to 180k before summer ’26,\u201d he summarized.
\nTapiero pointed to a recent Fed survey showing manufacturing expectations, deteriorating at a record pace, calling the results \u201chard for them to ignore.\u201d
\n\u201cForward market inflation indicators collapsing into danger zone,\u201d he continued in a separate post on the outlook for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).
\nIn both cases, Tapiero concluded that Bitcoin and risk assets will benefit from increasing market liquidity \u2014 an already popular theory against the backdrop of record M2 money supply.
\n\u201cLiquidity spigot coming as real rates too restrictive given fiscal tightening,\u201d he added about current interest rates.
\nUS CPI data. Source: Dan Tapiero\/XBitcoin speculators turn a profit
\nBitcoin short-term holders (STHs) are back under the microscope at current prices thanks to the influence of their aggregate cost basis on market trajectory.
\nAs Cointelegraph often reports, the cost basis, also known as realized price, reflects the average price at which speculative investors entered the market.
\nThis level, which covers buyers over the past six months but which is also broken down into various subcategories, is particularly important in Bitcoin bull markets.
\n\u201cToday, when we look at the current situation, we can see that the price has reached the STH-Realized Price,\u201d CryptoMe, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, wrote in one of its \u201cQuicktake\u201d blog posts on the topic.
\nCryptoQuant shows that the combined STH cost basis currently sits at around $92,000, making the level key to hold as support going forward.
\n\u201cOne of the key On-Chain conditions for a bull run is that the price remains above the STH-Realized Price. If the price is below the Realized Prices, we cannot truly talk about a bull run,\u201d CryptoMe explains.
\n\u201cIf this bull run is to continue, it must meet these conditions.\u201d
\nBitcoin STH realized price data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantThe STH cost basis was lost as support in March, with the recent BTC price rebound having a near-instant impact on its most recent buyers.
\nSTH-owned coins moving onchain earlier this month meanwhile led to predictions of fresh market volatility.\u00a0
\nResearch warns of greed-induced \u201clocal top\u201d
\nAfter hitting its highest in nearly three months last week, greed within crypto is on the radar as a price influence this week.
\nRelated:\u00a0New Bitcoin price all-time highs could occur in May \u2014 Here is why
\nThe latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index confirms a spike to 72\/100 on April 25, implying that crypto market sentiment came close to \u201cextreme greed.\u201d
\nNow back in \u201cneutral\u201d territory, the Index has nonetheless led research firm Santiment to warn of a potential local price top.
\nCrypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me\u201cData shows a surge in optimism from the crowd as $BTC rebounded above $95K for the first time since February,\u201d it told X followers.\u00a0
\n\u201cAs for the level of greed being measured across social media, this is the highest spike in bullish (vs. bearish) posts since the night Trump was elected on November 5, 2024.\u201d
\nCrypto market sentiment data. Source: Santiment\/XAn accompanying chart covered what Santiment describes as \u201cexcitement and FOMO\u201d peaking as a result of the BTC price rebound.
\n\u201cThe crowd’s level of greed vs. fear is very likely going to influence whether a local top forms (because the crowd gets too greedy), or if crypto can continue to decouple from the S&P 500 (because the crowd tries to prematurely take profit),\u201d it added.
\nThis article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"