{"id":128238,"date":"2025-04-29T23:18:01","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T23:18:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=128238"},"modified":"2025-04-29T23:18:01","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T23:18:01","slug":"betting-markets-q1-us-gdp-forecast-flips-negative-amid-tariff-turmoil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/?p=128238","title":{"rendered":"Betting markets\u2019 Q1 US GDP forecast flips negative amid tariff turmoil"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in an upcoming economic data release.<br \/>\nThe US has logged positive growth figures every quarter since 2022, and a reversal in that trend could mark the start of a recession.<br \/>\nThe pessimistic outlook marks a stark sentiment shift for prediction markets, which had recently anticipated a positive US growth report. On April 29, consensus Q1 US growth estimates on Kalshi, a US derivatives exchange, plunged from around 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.<br \/>\nMeanwhile, Polymarket bettors are setting the odds of a US economic contraction in Q1 at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mostly favorable outlook.<br \/>\nThe shift comes one day after Canada, America\u2019s second-largest trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as prime minister. Carney has vowed to take a more hawkish stance in Canada\u2019s ongoing trade war with the US.<br \/>\nBettors on Kalshi now expect a negative US GDP print. Source: KalshiRelated: Analysts brace for Bitcoin slide on gloomy US manufacturing data<br \/>\nThe markets are pegged to the outcome of an April 30 report by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which issues official measures of America\u2019s gross domestic product (GDP).<br \/>\nThe report will provide the clearest view yet into the impact of US President Donald Trump\u2019s controversial trade policies.<br \/>\nPrediction markets work by letting users trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.<br \/>\nIn 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump\u2019s election win but also his party\u2019s sweep of the US House and Senate.<br \/>\nPolymarket\u2019s US GDP growth wagers. Source: PolymarketTariff turmoil<br \/>\nOn April 2, Trump announced plans to place sweeping tariffs on US imports. The president has since paused the rollout of tariffs on certain countries, but the prospect of a global trade war still looms.<br \/>\nThe macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on US economic data.<br \/>\nIn April, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index \u2014 a monthly survey of 250 US-based manufacturers \u2014 reported the sharpest declines in activity since 2020.\u00a0<br \/>\nAnalysts said factories are bracing for the impact of Trump\u2019s tariff plans, which could potentially raise production costs for manufacturers.<br \/>\nMagazine:\u00a0Memecoin degeneracy is funding groundbreaking anti-aging research<a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/betting-markets-q1-us-gdp-forecast-flips-negative-amid-tariff-turmoil?utm_source=rss_feed&amp;utm_medium=rss&amp;utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"feedzy-rss-link-icon\" rel=\"noopener\">Read More<\/a><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Cointelegraph.com NewsBettors on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are flipping bearish on the US economy. As of April 29, both platforms are predicting that the US will log an&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128238"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=128238"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/128238\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=128238"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=128238"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/cryptospotters.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=128238"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}