Source: Politics<\/p>\n
Democratic leaders are feeling pressure to join a brewing redistricting battle that is threatening to upend the midterms landscape \u2014 an effort that is likely to slam into legal and political reality.<\/p>\n
As Texas Republicans pressed forward with a redistricting blitz designed to increase the number of red seats in the state, officials in the biggest Democratic states scrambled for a response. In New York, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries spoke with Gov. Kathy Hochul in recent days to discuss what a counter-effort could look like. California Gov. Gavin Newsom\u2019s administration talked to state election officials about the logistics and timing of a special election to overturn its nonpartisan commission. And Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker joined Newsom in meeting with Texas Democratic lawmakers on Friday about a strategy for stalling the GOP\u2019s brazen attempt to carve out five new seats, per President Donald Trump\u2019s demand.<\/p>\n
The problem is Democrats don\u2019t have many options. In conversations with more than a dozen state lawmakers and redistricting experts, Democrats’ best shot at redrawing a map lies in California, a heavily blue state with a huge number of congressional districts. They see the second-best option in New York, which saw Democratic gerrymandering efforts sputter in recent years, and Illinois, which is already a heavily pro-Democrat gerrymander. Far less likely options lie with Maryland and New Jersey, which have just four Republican-held seats between them.<\/p>\n
Discussion of these options come as a debate rages within the party over whether to play hard ball to the same degree as Republicans.<\/p>\n
\u201cAt this moment, it seems very clear that self defense is something we have to put as a priority,\u201d said Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon, who introduced a bill this week that would force open Maryland\u2019s redistricting process if another state pursues redistricting ahead of the U.S. Census. \u201cIf that\u2019s where we are, and that\u2019s where we\u2019re forced to go, then I think that\u2019s where Democratic states need to be prepared to go.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump is pushing Republicans in an aggressive effort to redraw maps in hopes of holding onto the House in a potentially unfriendly midterms cycle. Efforts are already underway in Texas, where Trump wants to draw five additional GOP seats<\/a>, and in Ohio, where Republicans hope to draw additional red districts during a legally mandated redistricting. Punchbowl News recently reported Trump is pressuring Missouri<\/a> to rip up its own map ahead of the midterms, too.<\/p>\n All of this has sparked outrage from the Democratic base, but Republicans feel bullish about a midterms map that is reshaped by partisan redistricting.<\/p>\n \u201cIn an arms race where there\u2019s a race to gerrymander the most, there\u2019s not a scenario where they have more seats than we do,\u201d said a GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak about party strategy.<\/p>\n Newsom has been the most strident of all the Democratic governors who lead trifectas in his vow to counter Texas Republicans, vowing on Friday to \u201cput a stake into the heart\u201d of the Trump administration by preventing Republicans from retaining the House.<\/p>\n But the obstacles are steep: Redrawing California\u2019s map would require either calling a special election and convincing voters to return line-drawing power to politicians after they specifically voted to entrust a nonpartisan commission with that authority, or simply having the Legislature draw maps and effectively daring the courts to stop them.<\/p>\n \u201cI don\u2019t think it\u2019s doable. I think there are too many constitutional constraints,\u201d said Bruce Cain, a Stanford political scientist who was deeply involved as a staffer in the partisan gerrymanders from a prior era of California politics.<\/p>\n It’s not just a legal obstacle. Undertaking redistricting would open up a huge “political fight” within the party by redrawing districts some politicians have run in for multiple cycles, he said. \u201cYou\u2019d be borrowing from different kinds of Democrats and sticking them into other seats and the politics of that would be very complex,\u201d Cain added.<\/p>\n But Newsom, who has his eye on running for president in 2028, has been steadily laying the groundwork anyway. He hosted Texas Democrats at the governor\u2019s mansion in Sacramento on Friday, doing his part to project a united national front against Republicans, and told reporters he was weighing several options to expand Democrats\u2019 margins beyond their current, disproportionate hold on 43 of 52 House seats.<\/p>\n \u201cThe question I imagine many folks are asking here in California is: what do the politics of Texas have to do with the politics here in California?\u201d Newsom told reporters on Friday, flanked by Texas lawmakers. \u201cThe answer is everything.\u201d<\/p>\n Lawmakers and operatives who were initially caught off guard or skeptical of Newsom\u2019s proposal are increasingly becoming convinced California has the authority and the political will to respond to Texas in kind. Sharing maps of a potential Democratic gerrymander has become a favorite pastime.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve seen a map that’s legal, upholds the Voting Rights Act, and produces 49 to 50 Democratic seats,\u201d said Matt Barreto, a pollster and director of UCLA\u2019s Voting Rights Project who polled for the Harris campaign and advised the Biden White House. California currently has 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans in Congress. \u201cThis is something lawmakers should consider if Texas goes first.\u201d<\/p>\n In New York, Jeffries\u2019 staff spoke with Hochul\u2019s office recently to discuss redistricting New York\u2019s House seats, two people with direct knowledge of the conversation said. On Thursday, Hochul declared that \u201call\u2019s fair in love and war\u201d regarding returning to contentious congressional map redraw.<\/p>\n \u201cIf there\u2019s other states violating the rules and are trying to give themselves an advantage, all I\u2019m going to say is, I\u2019m going to look at it with Hakeem Jeffries,” she said.<\/p>\n Even if state lawmakers plow ahead with redistricting, something the state Constitution says can only be done once per decade, the process would likely take more than a year to complete and may not be finished in time for the 2026 midterm elections.<\/p>\n New York tried an aggressive gerrymander that got blocked by the courts in 2022, and a court-drawn map was used instead. Democrats later drew a new map that is far less aggressive.<\/p>\n Hochul\u2019s political allies believe there is little upside to drawing new lines.<\/p>\n \u201cI understand those in New York who are watching what\u2019s happening in Texas and Ohio want to offset their unfair advantage,\u201d said New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs. But \u201cthe constitution seems pretty clear that this redistricting process should be done every 10 years. I don\u2019t know where someone could interpret it as something you can do every two years.\u201d<\/p>\n Beyond Texas, Republicans have their eye on picking up seats in other states like Missouri and Florida \u2014 which would put Democrats in a tough spot, given they don\u2019t have as much leeway to squeeze out extra seats.<\/p>\n New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy was noncommittal when asked by reporters earlier this week if he plans to pursue redistricting, noting that it\u2019s \u201ctoo early to make any definitive statement about it.\u201d But he echoed what many other Democrats across the country have said when talking about the possibility of early redistricting: \u201cNever bring a knife to a gunfight.\u201d<\/p>\n New Jersey has its own constitutional impediment, which states that congressional districts, which are drawn by an independent commission, \u201cshall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.\u201d<\/p>\n Even if they were able to circumvent the state constitution, Democrats already have the majority in the New Jersey congressional delegation, and just two seats \u2014 the 7th, held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., and the 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou \u2014 are considered battlegrounds.<\/p>\n Even some other Hail Mary options seem off the table. State lawmakers in Washington, Minnesota and Colorado balked at the suggestion they should pursue drawing new maps in the next few months.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s just not in the cards,\u201d said Washington House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon, citing the requirement that a two-thirds majority is needed in both the state House and Senate to reconvene the state\u2019s bipartisan redistricting commission.<\/p>\n And Minnesota State Sen. Aric Nesbitt shut down the idea quickly: \u201cWe’re not power-crats, we\u2019re Democrats. We should do things that improve democracy, even if that means sometimes we don’t get our way.\u201d Democrats hold the governorship and state Senate in Minnesota, but Republicans narrowly control the House.<\/p>\n In Colorado \u201cthere\u2019s really no debate,\u201d said former Senate Leader Steve Fenberg, who helped create the state\u2019s independent redistricting commission in 2018.\u201cWe\u2019re at a juncture right now where the threat is so overwhelming that I don\u2019t think Democrats should rule out responding in kind,\u201d he said. \u201cBut in a state like Colorado, I don\u2019t think it\u2019s really in our DNA to do this kind of action and it’s not constitutionally allowed.\u201d<\/p>\n Still, with a potentially tougher cycle ahead of them than they were anticipating given all of Trump’s strategy, redistricting is sure to be a hot topic of conversation as Democratic governors gather at the National Governors Association meeting this weekend in Colorado.<\/p>\n \u201cI suspect as the Democratic governors get together for a drink or a coffee, this will be high on the agenda,\u201d Murphy said.<\/p>\n