Source: Politics<\/p>\n
PASSAIC COUNTY, New Jersey \u2014 Both candidates in the New Jersey governor\u2019s race have something to prove here in Passaic. It\u2019s ground zero for the inroads President Donald Trump made with Latino voters \u2014 Trump won this plurality-Latino county last year, the first GOP presidential candidate to do so in decades \u2014 and it offers the first big litmus test of whether the Latino shift toward the GOP in 2024 will stick without Trump on the ballot.<\/p>\n
That is, if Latino voters show up.<\/p>\n
With just days left until Election Day, there are concerns on the ground that Democrat Mikie Sherrill\u2019s and Republican Jack Ciattarelli\u2019s campaigns have not done enough to reach the hyperlocal and swingy communities of Latinos in this northern pocket of New Jersey. Strategists and local leaders told POLITICO they\u2019ve witnessed a lack of enthusiasm in Passaic County, where campaign messaging and activation around Latino voters is falling flat.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s not as proactive as they needed to be,\u201d said a Democratic strategist with roots in Passaic, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly.<\/p>\n
Around Passaic, there\u2019s a resounding recognition among Latino leaders and some organizers that this bellwether bloc of voters may not vote this year. Latino voters, like other minority groups, historically have lower levels of engagement in off-year elections.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m asking you, please, do not stay home,\u201d Passaic Mayor Hector Lora told a crowd of Sherrill voters at a campaign rally in Paterson last Sunday. \u201cNew Jersey is watching Passaic County, and the nation is watching New Jersey,\u201d Christine Tiseo, a local councilmember, said at the same rally.<\/p>\n
The signs of lagging enthusiasm are evident on the ground. A trip up Main Avenue, which cuts through the city of Passaic heading into Clifton and Paterson, is devoid of campaign postings or early voting signs. The main library in Clifton, which serves as an early voting site, has been under construction for months and is adorned with large black-and-white signs signaling its temporary closure. Prospective early voters have to make their way around the back of the building to find the entrance available to them.<\/p>\n
\u201cHow the hell do you expect these people to vote!\u201d Jeannette Mestre, a Clifton voter, told POLITICO on the sidelines of Sherrill\u2019s event.<\/p>\n
The most noticeable sign of life from either campaign during the past week came by way of canvassers from Make the Road New Jersey, who\u2019ve been in the city of Passaic for months campaigning for Sherrill and speaking to thousands of residents to remind them to vote. During their third round of door-knocking Thursday in Passaic \u2014 which Trump carried with 52 percent last year \u2014 two canvassers noted the lack of visibility for either campaign in the neighborhood.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s like they\u2019re literally trying to get people not to vote,\u201d said Lori Gonzalez, a volunteer with Make the Road. She estimated that of 60 voters her group connects with, about 40 will stay home. Knocking on doors of midsize residential buildings in Passaic on Thursday in the pouring rain, a consistent trend emerged: The decided voters \u2014 usually younger, all who have already prepared to vote \u2014 said they\u2019re going for Sherrill. But many were unsure, and most of the others said they weren\u2019t planning to hit the polls.<\/p>\n
That trend is also playing out across the area: Passaic County\u2019s early voting numbers are lagging behind<\/a>, with Democratic turnout at 13.4 percent \u2014 six points below the state average, with a similar lagging trend for mail-in ballots. It\u2019s the manifestation of anxieties ruminating within Latino strategists and local politicians that the community just hasn\u2019t been rallied or motivated enough to vote.<\/p>\n \u201cWe fought a good fight for the primary, but now I see an apathy,\u201d a local Democratic leader said about Sherrill\u2019s campaign. \u201cI would have wished to have seen more done in the Latino communities \u2014 you know where people are feeling like, \u2018Wow, they care.\u2019 And I believe that they care, but I think the campaign \u2014 I don’t think it’s making sure. [Sherrill\u2019s] just out there, just going from space to space, and it’s a big state.\u201d<\/p>\n Democrats\u2019 theory of the case is that many voters in Latino strongholds like Passaic County had election fatigue in 2024; the right messaging didn\u2019t reach them, so they chose Trump as a change agent who would help their pocketbooks or they simply stayed home. Winning Passaic back would not only chip away at Republicans\u2019 gains, but also provide Democrats a battle-tested message to take into midterms.<\/p>\n Republicans are betting that their success with Latino voters last year wasn\u2019t just a Trump effect, but rather a budding realignment of Latinos and working-class voters nationwide with whom they share values. Latinos are \u201cwaking up to the fact that the current policies have failed us, but also, the Democratic Party has been taking them for granted,\u201d Ciattarelli told POLITICO on his tour bus after his rally in Clifton last Saturday.<\/p>\n Ciattarelli\u2019s campaign has spotlighted him at practically every Latino parade in the state, connecting with Latino churches and small-business owners, said Kennith Gonzalez, who leads the campaign\u2019s Hispanic outreach. Sherrill\u2019s campaign has focused on connecting with local Latino leaders and groups, who can channel her message into their communities, campaign vice chair Patricia Campos-Medina said.<\/p>\n The problem is, with either approach, there\u2019s people who fall through the cracks, according to Rafael Collazo, the executive director of the UnidosUS Action PAC, one of multiple groups supporting Sherrill and working to reach Latino voters across the state. \u201cIt\u2019s hard to put a number on it, but a significant amount of Latino voters aren’t really touched by those networks on either side,\u201d he told POLITICO.<\/p>\n Despite the millions of dollars in investments in Spanish ads and media outreach, the strategists and local leaders said Sherrill\u2019s campaign has not spent enough time effectively connecting with hyperlocal Latino communities. A Democratic strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly said Sherrill\u2019s running a suburban campaign with Latinos: \u201cIt\u2019s like they took the strategy that you apply to the suburbs and try to take it statewide.\u201d That comes amid general concerns in the final weeks about the enthusiasm surrounding Sherrill\u2019s campaign, as POLITICO has previously reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n Immigration is also bubbling as a flashpoint. Of the Passaic residents who spoke with Playbook about the election, all named immigration \u2014 ICE raids and deportations, more specifically \u2014 as their chief concern. The county is around 42 percent Latino, but cities like Passaic are up to 70 percent Latino, immigrant-dominated areas with some of the biggest concentrations of Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and Peruvians anywhere in the U.S. Ciattarelli has toed a delicate line by aligning himself with MAGA while softening on some immigration issues, but recent polling suggests<\/a> that Trump\u2019s sway with Latino voters generally is dropping.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s the first meaningful temperature check since the last election,\u201d Carlos Odio, a Latino analyst and pollster with Equis Research, told POLITICO. \u201cAnd it\u2019s fitting that it be here, because this is where you saw the biggest shifts from \u201920 to \u201924.\u201d<\/p>\n Canvassing continues as the final days approach. Ciattarelli\u2019s campaign is knocking doors this weekend in Paterson and nearby Woodbridge, while Make the Road said it\u2019ll keep going for Sherrill in Passaic through Tuesday. Sherrill was scheduled for a get-out-the-vote rally in Clifton on Saturday.<\/p>\n But the campaigns will find out if they walked the walk with Latino voters on Tuesday. Sherrill, for her part, is talking the talk, at least. In a high school gymnasium in Paterson last Sunday, surrounded by Latinos volunteering for her campaign, Sherrill made a heartfelt plea to the community.<\/p>\n \u201cNecesito su voto, familia,\u201d she told the crowd in Spanish: I need your vote.<\/p>\n Like this content? Consider signing up for POLITICO’s Playbook newsletter<\/a>. <\/p>\n