Source: Politics<\/p>\n
President Donald Trump’s trade war has driven Canadians from Las Vegas. Democrats think it will help them protect their Nevada battleground seats in November.<\/p>\n
Last year, as Trump levied tariffs on Canada, visits from Canadians \u2014 who account for up to half of Las Vegas\u2019 foreign tourism \u2014 dropped off by 17<\/a> percent. That played a large role in a 7.5 percent year-over-year decline<\/a> in total tourist visits, making 2025 the worst non-pandemic year for Las Vegas since the city started tracking data in 1970. Now, as peak tourism season arrives in a battleground state where Republicans\u2019 control of the House could be won or lost, Democrats are pushing voters to see the tourism slump as a direct impact of Trump\u2019s levies.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump instituted his reckless tariffs. In response, Canadians have literally boycotted traveling to America,\u201d said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.), whose Las Vegas-area seat is Republicans\u2019 top target in the state. \u201cThat has had a significant impact on our tourism.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump narrowly carried Lee\u2019s district in 2024 and nearly won two other Vegas-area districts held by Democrats. Republicans are less bullish than they were a year ago about flipping the seats, but they view Lee’s as their best chance. <\/p>\n The races are a rare example of the international politics of tariffs \u2014 beyond their direct economic impact \u2014 playing a major role in an election. Unlike the upper Midwest or the Great Plains, Nevada doesn\u2019t have a large manufacturing or agricultural sector jolted by the tariffs. Instead, the product most affected is the state\u2019s Canadian visitors \u2014 who, on any given year, make up between 25 and 50 percent<\/a> of Las Vegas\u2019 foreign tourism market.<\/p>\n Spokespeople for the Republican National Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee criticized Nevada\u2019s Democratic congresspeople for voting against last year\u2019s reconciliation bill, which included a \u201cno tax on tips\u201d provision<\/a>. \u201cIf they actually cared about affordability, they wouldn\u2019t have spent years making Nevada harder and more expensive to live in,\u201d NRCC spokesperson Christian Martinez said.<\/p>\n Kush Desai, spokesperson for the White House, noted the \u201cvast majority of Las Vegas tourists are Americans,\u201d adding that the Trump administration \u201cis focused on unleashing the historic job, wage, and economic growth that the American people experienced during President Trump\u2019s first term with the President\u2019s proven agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance.\u201d<\/p>\n Many Canadians, incensed by Trump\u2019s tariffs and his \u201c51st state\u201d taunts<\/a>, have boycotted U.S. products and tourist destinations<\/a> in retaliation. It coincides with an overall dropoff in Canadians\u2019 view of their southern neighbor: According to a POLITICO Poll in February<\/a>, a majority of Canadians now think the U.S. is an unreliable ally.<\/p>\n Even some Nevada Republicans acknowledge the problem. \u201cThe Canadians aren’t coming the way they were. Wonder why that is, huh?\u201d Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nev.), who isn\u2019t running for reelection in his northern Nevada seat, said with a chuckle. \u201cThe communications for the tariff stuff was suboptimal.\u201d<\/p>\n The dropoff in Canadian visitors played a role in stagnating a Las Vegas hospitality sector reliant on wealthy international visitors spending in the city\u2019s casinos and hotels. A string of Las Vegas restaurants closed in recent months, some citing a downturn in visitors<\/a>. And while employment has increased recently in the entertainment and recreation sectors, hiring in food and accommodation has been stagnant, according to Andrew Woods, an economist at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.<\/p>\n The decline has been severe enough that local industry is taking dramatic steps to try to lure back lost business amidst an ongoing boycott from Canada<\/a>. A group of Las Vegas resorts is offering to treat Canadian dollars at par<\/a> with U.S. dollars, effectively a 30 percent discount, and hosting free concerts featuring Canadian artists. And the city\u2019s tourism office recently launched a $3.5 million marketing campaign<\/a> targeting Canadian visitors.<\/p>\n But it\u2019s hard to overcome national patriotic fury with an ad campaign.<\/p>\n \u201cDespite the efforts of our major operators in Las Vegas, the headwinds are coming from these external forces and the policies of this administration, and that’s what’s creating the economic uncertainty that we’re facing right now in Las Vegas,\u201d said Rep. Steven Horsford (D-Nev.), whose district Trump lost by less than 3 points.<\/p>\n Overall tourist visits ticked up in February and March<\/a> from those months the year earlier, offering a silver lining to the service industry. But the previous year of declining numbers created a deep hole to dig out of, said Ted Pappageorge, secretary\/treasurer of the state\u2019s powerful Culinary Union, which represents 60,000 cooks, roomkeepers and other hospitality workers in the state. If the low numbers continue, the union \u2014 which endorsed Democrats in all four of Nevada\u2019s congressional races \u2014 is considering putting together relief efforts for its struggling members like it did during Covid, which included food, utility and rent assistance.<\/p>\n \u201cIf there’s anything like the reduction in visitation that happened last year, if that happens this year, then we’ll be in relief effort territory for our members,\u201d said Pappageorge, noting \u201cthousands and thousands of hours\u201d have been cut for his union\u2019s members this year due to reductions and restaurant closures.<\/p>\n Marty O\u2019Donnell \u2014 the GOP front-runner to face Lee, who has the backing of Trump and the NRCC \u2014 was once skeptical<\/a> of tariffs, but now says he \u201cfully support(s)\u201d<\/a> the president\u2019s trade policy.<\/p>\n \u201cI’m now a convert, because what I see Donald Trump doing with tariffs is not something I ever anticipated,\u201d O\u2019Donnell said in an interview. \u201cHe uses it as a negotiating tool in a way that I never anticipated, and I actually love what he’s doing.\u201d<\/p>\n O\u2019Donnell said tariffs aren\u2019t at the top of voters\u2019 list of concerns. \u201cI don’t hear anybody complaining about tariffs,\u201d he said. \u201cI just don’t think it’s an issue. I think there are way, way more important issues.\u201d<\/p>\n One Nevada Republican strategist assisting multiple campaigns this cycle, granted anonymity to speak candidly about GOP strategy, admitted that Canadians were upset by Trump\u2019s threats to make the country the \u201c51st state\u201d last year.<\/a> But he and other Republicans pointed to an uptick in visitors in February and March. The strategist also noted the fact that Nevada added jobs at a faster rate than any other state<\/a> in April, even though it has the nation\u2019s third-highest unemployment rate<\/a>. Those recent economic wins take the air out of Democrats\u2019 attack, the strategist said.<\/p>\n \u201cThere are some bright spots,\u201d O\u2019Donnell senior adviser Keith Schipper said. \u201cWe’re talking about tariffs less so now than even six months, eight months ago.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans also point to the popularity of Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo, who they hope can win reelection in a tough environment and pull down-ballot candidates over the finish line. In a February poll, he was still viewed positively by a majority of Nevada voters<\/a> even as Trump\u2019s job approval dipped to 41 percent<\/a>.<\/p>\n Not all economic indicators are dire, said Woods, the UNLV economist. The high-end hospitality sector is doing well, and an uptick in convention and business travelers has more than replaced the loss of Canadian tourists in numbers. \u201cCanadian visitors, though, tend to stay longer and make Vegas their prime destination compared to other international tourists, which is good for our economy,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n The local tourism drop lands on top of other economic concerns that are impacting everyone. A new CNN\/SSRS poll conducted in late April and early May<\/a> found that 77 percent of U.S. voters say Trump\u2019s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community. And a surge in energy prices driven by the war in Iran led to inflation reaching its highest point in three years<\/a>.<\/p>\n But Las Vegas is still an industry town. And with the main industry suffering, Democrats are banking on their races going their way.<\/p>\n \u201cThere’s a lot of service industry folks here, and so those folks are in the social circles in town,\u201d said John Oceguera, the former Democratic speaker of the Nevada Assembly. \u201cWhether you’re at a little league baseball game or a school event or whatnot, people are talking about that.\u201d<\/p>\n