Source: Politics<\/p>\n
Donald Trump is facing one of his biggest tests of the midterms \u2014 and it\u2019s of his own making.<\/p>\n
The president has spent a significant amount of time and money trying to help Sen. Darline Graham defeat Rep. Ralph Norman in Tuesday\u2019s snap GOP Senate primary. He\u2019s done more for Graham than he has for the battleground Republicans whose general election fights will determine control of Congress: Not only did he push her to run for a full term<\/a>, he also held a rare in-person rally<\/a> for her and tapped into his MAGA Inc. warchest<\/a> during the final days of the race.<\/p>\n If, after lending all that support, Graham fails, it would be Trump\u2019s most embarrassing loss of the cycle. A win, however, would let him flex his ability to power an unknown political figure to office.<\/p>\n \u201cIf Darline does come up short, it would be just a massive, massive embarrassment to the White House and to the president. Just an utter rejection,\u201d said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and former Trump State Department appointee during his first term.<\/p>\n Tuesday\u2019s runoff to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on the November ballot won\u2019t meaningfully affect the balance of power in Washington. What it will do is reveal the extent of Trump\u2019s clout, because of just how much personal political capital he has expended in the race to convince voters to elect a virtual stranger.<\/p>\n \u201cThe fact that he came to the state on short notice to do a rally, and we haven\u2019t seen that in a lot of endorsements, I think that sends a very strong message that he\u2019s all in,\u201d said Andrew Boucher, a GOP strategist and chair of South Carolina\u2019s Charleston County Republican Party, who is neutral in the race.<\/p>\n Trump has framed the race as nothing less than a referendum on himself. Rallying with Graham in Myrtle Beach last week, the president told voters to \u201cpretend, please, that I\u2019m on the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n On Monday, a Federal Election Commission report revealed that Trump\u2019s super PAC had spent $827,000<\/a> on text messages and phone calls for Graham. It\u2019s one of the largest expenditures this cycle from MAGA Inc., and cash that Republicans in battlegrounds<\/a> are anxiously awaiting for themselves.<\/a><\/p>\n One national Republican operative, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the president\u2019s influence on the race, noted just how far Trump\u2019s support has gotten Graham: \u201cShe wouldn’t even be in this place if she didn’t have [his support]. The outside help she’s had has kind of made this competitive.\u201d<\/p>\n Before GOP Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to serve out the remainder of her late brother\u2019s term in July, Graham was a complete political novice. Graham has worked for the South Carolina Vocational Rehabilitation Department and has led the Commission for the Blind since 2019, but she had never held or even sought public office \u2014 a fact that her opponents have attacked her for repeatedly on the campaign trail, especially after she stumbled over a key foreign policy question<\/a> on the debate stage earlier this month. Her clearest connection to electoral politics lay solely in being the late senator\u2019s younger sister.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s past mistakes in South Carolina loom over the race. The Senate primary has echoes of the state\u2019s governor\u2019s contest earlier this summer, in which Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, a little-known Trump-backed candidate, fell to the more well-known<\/a> Attorney General Alan Wilson. As public polling began to show Evette trailing significantly in the first days of that runoff, Trump issued a rare dual endorsement to include Wilson<\/a>.<\/p>\n Evette\u2019s defeat, coupled with a batch of uncharacteristic losses<\/a> by Trump endorsees in GOP primaries in Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, Wyoming and Michigan, has put all the more attention on Graham.<\/p>\n The power of his endorsement is on the president\u2019s own mind, too. In a Sunday night post on Truth Social<\/a>, Trump mused that his \u201cEndorsements are stronger than ever,\u201d pointing to splashy charts comparing his wins to his comparatively few defeats.<\/p>\n But in the same breath, he acknowledged that his power is not always absolute: \u201cThe few that lost were done out of loyalty. It was almost impossible for them to win but, I felt obligated to go with them because they were, in my opinion, good people!\u201d<\/p>\n When asked for comment, a White House spokesperson pointed to specific remarks from Trump\u2019s speech at Friday\u2019s rally with Graham, including his acknowledgement that he urged her to jump in the primary.<\/p>\n \u201cShe\u2019s never done it before, but she knows politics well,\u201d Trump told supporters on Myrtle Beach. \u201cShe loves our military. She loves things that have to do with greatness for America.\u201d<\/p>\n Graham\u2019s foreign policy debate flub<\/a> \u2014 in which she said \u201cnational security is not my thing\u201d in response to a question of U.S. interests in Taiwan \u2014 revealed the pitfalls of running for office with no prior experience. Norman has taken advantage of that stumble by hammering her inexperience.<\/p>\n The closing stretch of the race has been characterized by Graham trying to tie herself to Trump and burnish her conservative credentials across the state. Norman has tried to shore up support in his Upstate stronghold and expand into the Low Country where former Gov. Mark Sanford \u2014 who endorsed his campaign<\/a> late last week \u2014 dominated in the first round. Norman\u2019s also taken to Fox News<\/a> to bash Graham as an \u201cunknown\u201d and \u201cpropped-up candidate.\u201d<\/p>\n Graham\u2019s campaign hopes to consolidate support from Rep. Russell Fry\u2019s (R-S.C.) district after he endorsed her campaign<\/a> a few days into the runoff. Her closing ad<\/a> of the race claims Norman \u201cturned his back on Trump\u2019s agenda\u201d and is interspersed with footage of her on the rally stage alongside the president.<\/p>\n The GOP party establishment in South Carolina has fallen in line behind Graham.<\/p>\n Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) publicly backed her bid on the first day of the runoff, Evette got in line shortly thereafter and McMaster followed several days later.<\/p>\n Graham\u2019s campaign has itself spent just over $1 million in ads since the outset of the race, but that spending is bolstered by at least three other outside groups \u2014 including Security is Strength PAC, Palmetto Action PAC, and American Mission PAC \u2014 who also supported her late brother\u2019s primary bid earlier this year. Their spending has topped $6 million, according to AdImpact.<\/p>\n Norman has had his own outside help from a notable figure and longtime ally: Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and her aligned groups have spent more than $700,000 for Norman, including $200,000 on a supportive ad<\/a> from her issue advocacy group, Stand for America.<\/p>\n But that\u2019s still much lower compared with what Graham has received.<\/p>\n \u201cSen. Scott engaging in the race, the congressional delegation, all these portions of it. Congressman Fry engaging in the race is a big deal. You could almost say that’s the opposite of what you had in the governor’s race,\u201d said a South Carolina-based Republican operative, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly and is staying neutral in the race.<\/p>\n Spokespeople for Graham and Norman did not respond to requests for comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n Graham is still somewhat dogged by her high-profile debate stage mistake, though she\u2019s tried to redirect the attention in interviews.<\/p>\n \u201cYou know what I\u2019ve done in the last week? I\u2019ve gone around this entire state talking to as many people as I possibly can. And you know how many of them brought up Taiwan and national security? Not one!\u201d she said<\/a> at a press conference in Columbia on Monday.<\/p>\n The late August runoff date could prove unpredictable for both candidates as they seek to drive out their supporters across the state. The twilight of South Carolina\u2019s sticky, slow summer is in full effect: Most kids have returned to school, families across the state are packing their beach gear for one final getaway and the doldrums of summer are still in full force.<\/p>\n Several Republicans said that could mean a lower turnout \u2014 which could be a boon for a known-quantity candidate with a long history in local office, like Norman.<\/p>\n \u201cA lot of the candidates that have defeated Trump-endorsed folks across the map this cycle, they’re well-known entities,\u201d said the national GOP operative. \u201cIt’s hard to overcome some of the basics of politics, where name ID goes a long way. Familiarity with the candidate matters. Having a favorable view and someone who aligns with your values more matters, even if there’s a Trump endorsement.\u201d<\/p>\n Samuel Benson contributed to this report.\u00a0<\/p>\n