Source: Politics<\/p>\n
LAS VEGAS \u2014 If California Gov. Gavin Newsom runs for president in 2028, next-door Nevada will be a crucial test. This fall\u2019s governor\u2019s race is offering a preview.<\/p>\n
As GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo runs for reelection, he\u2019s trying to pin high Nevada fuel prices \u2014 a majority of which is imported from California \u2014 on \u201cGavin Newsom\u2019s energy policies.\u201d He lambasts California as too expensive and too regulated<\/a>. And he\u2019s hammering his<\/a> Democratic opponent, Attorney General Aaron Ford, for accepting Newsom\u2019s endorsement<\/a>, betting that it will turn off Nevada swing voters.<\/p>\n \u201cThe contrast is simple: I’m fighting Gavin Newsom’s agenda and Aaron Ford is trying to import it into Nevada,\u201d Lombardo said in a statement to POLITICO.<\/p>\n This could be a test run for 2028, when Newsom may call upon Nevadans \u2014 one-fifth of whom were born in California<\/a> \u2014 to deliver him a primary victory in the early-voting state, and possibly a presidential victory.<\/p>\n \u201cThey understand California costs more,\u201d Donna West, chair of the Nevada Democratic Party\u2019s senior caucus, said of Nevada\u2019s California expats. \u201cThey also understand that California is the fourth-largest economy in the entire world, and that Gavin Newsom ran that as effectively as he possibly can.\u201d<\/p>\n Newsom\u2019s office declined to comment. A person close to the governor, granted anonymity to discuss the sentiment in his orbit, said they are \u201cthrilled\u201d Republicans are spending money to \u201cplaster Newsom\u2019s name across a key early state.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cRepublicans seem awfully concerned about an endorsement from someone who leads the 2028 Democratic field in Nevada by nearly 2-to-1,\u201d the person said, pointing to a November 2025 Emerson poll<\/a> of a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary field.<\/p>\n Ford, for his part, shrugs off the attacks.<\/p>\n \u201cLombardo tries to cast blame elsewhere, but everyone knows that when the war started in February, that we saw our gas prices increase almost immediately,\u201d Ford told POLITICO after a recent town hall in Las Vegas. \u201cPeople believe their own eyes, and they remember their experiences.\u201d<\/p>\n The demonization of California is nothing new in Nevada politics: For years, Republicans have blasted their western neighbor as too expensive and too woke.<\/p>\n But the stakes are higher, and the connection more palpable, this year, as Newsom explores a presidential bid. He would likely need to perform very well in Nevada, now second on the Democratic calendar, to build early momentum toward the party nomination. And come November 2028, he\u2019d need to fare well in Nevada again, this time among the state\u2019s general electorate, a plurality of which are independents.<\/p>\n Newsom has stumped for Democrats across the country this cycle, and he blitzed through the South this week, including a swing through South Carolina, whose Democrats will vote first, right before Nevada, in 2028.<\/p>\n But Republicans are looking to weaponize Newsom\u2019s Silver State swing in July, where Ford introduced him<\/a> at a new Las Vegas field office as \u201cthe governor of the great state of California.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cOur next president!\u201d an audience member shouted, eliciting cheers.<\/p>\n The Lombardo-aligned Better Nevada PAC shared polling<\/a> with POLITICO<\/a> in July showing Newsom\u2019s favorability 20 points underwater in Nevada and losing a hypothetical 2028 head-to-head with Vice President JD Vance. Shortly thereafter, the PAC began an ad blitz tying Ford to the California governor.<\/p>\n Billboards touting Newsom\u2019s endorsement of Ford, paid for by the PAC, now line highways across Nevada<\/a>, and digital and streaming ads have run consistently since the visit. \u201cNewsom and Ford: Shared vision. Shared values,\u201d one ad says<\/a>.<\/p>\n A person familiar with the PAC\u2019s internal polling, granted anonymity to discuss private data, said it shows Newsom\u2019s endorsement is now the second-most-known datapoint about the attorney general.<\/p>\n \u201cGavin Newsom is the singular most unpopular elected official in Nevada,\u201d said Jeremy Hughes, a longtime Nevada GOP strategist running the Lombardo-aligned PAC. \u201cAaron Ford brought him into the state. \u2026 There’s no better way to help him out than to put up these signs and run ads, letting people know that he’s excited about being endorsed by Gavin Newsom.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans in the state have long blamed Californian expats for housing shortages<\/a> and rising prices<\/a> and connect their opponents to California liberals. A surge of ex-Californians leaving the state during the Covid-19 pandemic, some fleeing high taxes and cost of living<\/a>, accelerated the trend.<\/p>\n Sam Brown, the GOP nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022, blasted<\/a> the \u201cenergy policies of Gavin Newsom\u201d; in 2018, GOP governor nominee Adam Laxalt lamented<\/a> the \u201cCalifornization\u201d of Nevada, even as Californians bankrolled his campaign<\/a>. During Lombardo\u2019s first run for governor in 2022, he slammed incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak for taking<\/a> his<\/a> cues<\/a> from Newsom: \u201cDon\u2019t let Steve Sisolak turn Nevada into California,\u201d one post said<\/a>. Republicans tied their opponents<\/a> to Nancy Pelosi for decades.<\/p>\n Lombardo\u2019s argument this time around is more focused. He notes that the vast majority<\/a> of Nevada\u2019s gasoline comes from California, and argues that California\u2019s efforts to cut carbon emissions have caused fuel prices to soar. A gallon of gas in Nevada costs nearly $5, according to AAA<\/a>, one of the highest prices in the nation.<\/p>\n \u201cThe policies coming from Gavin Newsom and California Democrats \u2026 don’t stop at their state line,\u201d Lombardo said in a statement. \u201cNevada and other states import a significant portion of our fuel from California, so when Governor Newsom shuts down refineries and imposes regulations that reduce supply and increase costs, Nevada families feel the consequences at the pump.\u201d<\/p>\n It\u2019s a strategy that allows Lombardo \u2014 running in a difficult national environment for incumbent Republicans \u2014 to acknowledge voters\u2019 economic pain without blaming President Donald Trump or his own party. Indeed, Lombardo shared an April column<\/a> in the Nevada Independent that placed blame at the feet of both Newsom and Trump. (Lombardo, in his post<\/a>, blamed only Newsom.)<\/p>\n Democrats don\u2019t think voters will buy it. \u2018\u201cAs far as gas prices, it’s so obviously increased since the war,\u201d Rep. Dina Titus said. \u201cPeople in Nevada aren’t stupid.\u201d<\/p>\n Ford has his own millstone to saddle Lombardo with: the president. At a recent town hall in Las Vegas, he repeatedly blasted the \u201cLombardo-Trump economy\u201d that is \u201cmaking everything too expensive.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cVoters absolutely tie the handling of the economy to Trump,\u201d said Mike Noble, an independent Phoenix-based pollster who works in Nevada regularly. \u201cInstead of blaming Trump, why not tie it to the boogeyman next door and blame California?\u201d<\/p>\n