Source: Politics<\/p>\n
The 2026 House map continues to move further onto GOP terrain. But while Democrats are dreaming big, the GOP insists they can hold the majority.<\/p>\n
Score talked to the DCCC’s Deputy Executive Director Will Van Nuys and the NRCC’s Communications Director Will Kiley.<\/p>\n
The two operatives chose four under-the-radar races where they\u2019re feeling good about their underdog candidates pulling off an upset. If these races flip, they know they\u2019re having a good night.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’re not saying that this won’t be a tough fight to the end, but we know we feel very good about where we stand,\u201d Kiley said.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur job is to make sure that we raise as much as we can to expand this battlefield as far as we can,\u201d Van Nuys said.<\/p>\n
DEMOCRATS\u2019 FOUR ‘SLEEPER’ SEATS<\/p>\n
CO-05 (Trump +9.1)<\/p>\n
Rep. Jeff Crank won this seat by 14 points in 2024 in his third bid for Congress. But Colorado Springs is \u201ctrending Democrats\u2019 way\u201d with fast growth of younger and Hispanic populations. That shift, along with Trump\u2019s unpopularity, has Democrats hoping for a flip, Van Nuys says.<\/p>\n
IA-02 (Trump +10)<\/p>\n
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson\u2019s run for Senate has left this Northeastern Iowa seat open for the taking, Van Nuys argues. Frustrations with beef imports, rising gas prices and the popularity of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand have Democrats hoping state Rep. Lindsay James can turn this seat blue.<\/p>\n
KY-06 (Trump +15)<\/p>\n
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is making it his personal mission to elect his former adviser and federal prosecutor Zach Dembo and flip Senate nominee Rep. Andy Barr\u2019s Lexington-based seat. Dembo released an internal poll<\/a> in late September showing him with a five-point lead.<\/p>\n WI-01 (Trump +4.5)<\/p>\n Van Nuys says emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman is a \u201cperfect contrast\u201d in the blue-collar district to Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, an attorney and former plastics manufacturing executive.<\/p>\n NM-02 (Trump +1.8)<\/p>\n Former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell ran four cycles in a row. Now the GOP is betting on a fresh face: Greg Cunningham, a tattooed, motorcycle-driving Marine vet and ex-cop who\u2019s running ads<\/a> highlighting his Hispanic heritage in the Latino-heavy district.<\/p>\n Republicans are spending big on the race.<\/p>\n Kiley called Cunningham a \u201cbadass.\u201d\u201cGreg is a candidate who can continue to capture those voters and keep them coming our way,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n NY-03 (Trump +4.3)<\/p>\n Republican former state Assemblymember Mike LiPetri came within four points of defeating Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) in 2024, and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman coasted to reelection last fall. Now Blakeman is running for governor, and Kiley says the statewide campaign can push LiPetri over the top in a rematch.<\/p>\n The MAGA Inc.-affiliated No Going Back PAC has dropped a whopping $6 million into the district, with $2 million more from NRCC, though the CLF<\/a> trimmed its own ad buy there on Tuesday.<\/p>\n \u201cLast cycle, LiPetri came incredibly close with minimal to no outside investment,\u201d Kiley said. \u201cNow he has the investment and institutional support to get the job done.\u201d<\/p>\n AZ-01 (Trump +3.1)<\/p>\n The DCCC\u2019s preferred candidate lost to former Democratic state Rep. Amish Shah in the primary in this Phoenix and Scottsdale-area seat, and Kiley says that\u2019s opened the door for the GOP to hold the seat.<\/p>\n \u201cThe DCCC is lying if they said that Amish is the candidate they wanted,\u201d Kiley said.<\/p>\n Republicans nominated former Arizona Cardinals kicker and NFL commentator Jay Feely, and Kiley says Feely\u2019s unique resume will boost him over the edge. Both parties are spending huge sums, with more than $31 million combined earmarked for the race.<\/p>\n NV-03 (Trump +0.7)<\/p>\n Republican Marty O\u2019Donnell was the composer for the music in the popular video game Halo. He\u2019s using that success to pour $3 million into his bid to flip this Las Vegas-area seat held by Democratic Rep. Susie Lee.<\/p>\nFOUR DISTRICTS WHERE THE GOP THINKS IT CAN SURPRISE<\/h6>\n