Source: Politics<\/p>\n
Republicans spent tens of millions of dollars in 2020 to keep Democrats from painting more of Texas blue. Now, the GOP is trying to fireproof its districts with a new map that contains the suburban damage they’ve suffered.<\/p>\n
The Texas state Senate is on the verge of releasing new congressional lines that could very well determine the balance of power in the House for the next decade. While the precise boundaries are still being finalized, the new map is likely to shore up all of the state\u2019s GOP incumbents by packing Democrats together in three new deep-blue seats in the biggest metro areas: Austin, Houston and Dallas, according to several sources close to the redistricting process.<\/p>\n
The end result is likely to give Republicans control of at least two dozen of the state\u2019s 38 districts \u2014 but it is not expected to significantly reduce Democrats\u2019 footprint, which grew slightly over the past 10 years. That’s a far cry from the ruthless redistricting happening elsewhere \u2014 but also a realization of the GOP’s already maxed-out advantage in Texas.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019ve got a united map we\u2019ve all agreed to,\u201d Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas) said of the state\u2019s Republican delegation. \u201cIt makes it easier when we\u2019re united \u2014 it doesn\u2019t happen too often.\u201d<\/p>\n
The redistricting comes at a crucial moment. Texas has been at the center of two of the biggest trends in American politics: Democrats\u2019 increasing appeal in affluent suburbia, and the rightward shift among certain segments of Latino voters. The remap offers Republicans a much-needed reset, after they watched a chunk of once-safe seats turn into battlegrounds in the last few years.<\/p>\n
The new map will allow the GOP to slice up the rapidly diversifying suburbs while also leveraging its new strength in the Rio Grande Valley to create potential new pickup opportunities and boost the GOP’s chances of flipping the House next year. Sources stressed that though the congressional delegation in Washington is all on the same page, Republicans in both chambers of the state legislature could tweak the map before and after it’s officially introduced as early as this week.<\/p>\n
But the nature of Texas\u2019 population eruption over the past decade creates limits \u2014 both demographic and geographic \u2014 on how far Republicans can go in pressing their partisan advantage. Texas is gaining two districts in reapportionment, more than any other state. Yet virtually all of Texas\u2019 population growth came from nonwhite residents, and the exploding areas of the state are generally around major metro areas, which have been racing toward Democrats.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf they get greedy, they’re going to hurt their own people,\u201d said Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). \u201cThere’s nine seats that need shoring up and two new ones. If they go beyond that, they’re going to be losing seats over the next decade.\u201d<\/p>\n
In fact, the incumbent in the greatest redistricting peril is probably Gonzalez, whose South Texas seat is likely to become much more competitive \u2014 and perhaps even Republican-leaning.<\/p>\n
\u201cClearly I am,\u201d Gonzalez said when asked if he was a Republican target in redistricting. His GOP friends in the legislature have warned him, he said.<\/p>\n
Republicans began the last decade with 24 of the state’s three dozen congressional seats. For the first few cycles, the only truly competitive seat was a sprawling West Texas district that encompassed 800 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border. But by 2018, Democrats were able to wrest control of two suburban seats in Houston and Dallas that were longtime GOP strongholds. And by 2020, both parties were spending in over a half-dozen others.<\/p>\n
Democrats failed to oust any Texas Republicans last year, but seats that had never been seriously contested got uncomfortably competitive. Then-President Donald Trump\u2019s vote share dipped under 51 percent in seats held by GOP Reps. Dan Crenshaw, Van Taylor, Michael McCaul, Chip Roy, Troy Nehls, John Carter and Beth Van Duyne \u2014 a major warning sign.<\/p>\n
To protect those members, GOP mapmakers are expected to effectively cede the two districts they lost in 2018, packing the Dallas seat of Democratic Rep. Colin Allred and the Houston seat of Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher with Democratic voters from surrounding areas. And Texas legislators are expected to place a new heavily blue district in the Austin area for the same purpose.<\/p>\n
A second new seat will likely be added in the Houston region, and it will favor the GOP. Republican Wesley Hunt, who narrowly lost to Fletcher in 2020, is likely to run there.<\/p>\n
And for additional cushioning, they can pull from ruby-red seats in the Texas Panhandle, the Hill Country and along the state’s eastern border.<\/p>\n
\u201cEverybody knows you’re gonna have to give stuff up, and some people are gonna get things,\u201d said GOP Rep. Ronny Jackson, who represents the most Republican-leaning seat in the state, where Trump beat President Joe Biden by 60 points. \u201cIn particular I’m an R+33,” he added, referencing the district’s Partisan Voter Index. “So I just walked into this knowing like I’m giving up a lot, you know? I mean, I’m not gonna be an R+33 anymore \u2014 there’s just no way.\u201d<\/p>\n
Republican strategists feel confident they won\u2019t lose any incumbents in 2022, but it\u2019s hard to predict with certainty how any district will perform in 2024, or all the way through the 2030 midterms.<\/p>\n
They\u2019re making a bet that three new deep blue seats can siphon enough Democrats away from the surrounding areas to protect a dozen or so GOP incumbents \u2014 and that Democrats’ gains in the suburbs have plateaued. And there\u2019s some reason to think that\u2019s the case.<\/p>\n
Though Trump’s vote share in Texas lagged badly behind other recent GOP presidential candidates \u2014 including his less-than-6-point victory last year \u2014 the rest of the party’s ticket out-ran him, giving Republicans confidence that Texas isn’t turning purple any time soon.<\/p>\n
And Republicans in the state are also banking that their Trump-fueled surge in the Rio Grande Valley will continue without the former president on the ballot. The three districts in the region saw the biggest shift to the right in 2020, and Biden carried them by only a few points.<\/p>\n
Gonzalez had the closest shave, winning reelection by 3 points. But his neighbor, Democratic Rep. Filem\u00f3n Vela, is retiring, and he hasn\u2019t ruled out running in the new version of Vela\u2019s district if that looks more favorable.<\/p>\n
In an interview, Vela said it would be fairly easy for Republicans to draw at least one more favorable seat in South Texas. Trump may have been an anomaly, he said, but there are other reasons why the GOP might be ascendant.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think Trump’s showmanship probably drove a lot of the support that he had,\u201d Vela said. \u201cBut then the socialist wing of our party is hurting Democrats with the Hispanic vote in South Texas, without a doubt.\u201d<\/p>\n
It’s unclear how aggressively Republicans will target South Texas, according to interviews with party strategists. They could attempt to create a map with multiple competitive districts or perhaps one strong Republican seat.<\/p>\n
In interviews, members of the state’s GOP delegation described their redistricting meetings as drama-free. McCaul \u2014 who won reelection last year by 7 points even as Trump carried his district by less than 2 \u2014 is the delegation’s point person for redistricting, and the members in deep-red seats seemed eager to share some of their friendly voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cSome of those folks, you know, moving one neighborhood could make a difference,\u201d said Rep. Louie Gohmert, who represents a solid GOP district along the eastern border of the state. \u201cBut what I told the delegation was: \u2018Just don’t move me into Louisiana, and I\u2019ll be okay.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n