Source: Politics<\/p>\n
VIRGINIA BEACH, Va. \u2014 Alex Askew knows firsthand how tight elections can get for Democrats in Virginia. He barely won his seat in the state House of Delegates, defeating his Republican opponent by just 802 votes in 2019. <\/p>\n
That\u2019s why Askew is campaigning furiously ahead of the November election. On the first Sunday of \u201cSouls to the Polls\u201d early voting over the weekend, Askew, 36, attended two church services before an afternoon of campaign events and canvassing. He was joined by a colleague, state Del. Nancy Guy, who clinched her seat by an even closer margin of just 40 votes.<\/p>\n
\u201cOne of the things we\u2019re going to share with you is how important all elections are, not just the presidential elections, but all elections,\u201d said Veronica Coleman, the pastor at New Jerusalem Ministries, Askew\u2019s home church where he began his day. \u201cAmen?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAmen,\u201d the crowd repeated.<\/p>\n
When Virginia voters cast their ballots in two weeks, they\u2019re not just weighing in on a closely watched governor\u2019s election \u2014 one that\u2019s been hyped as a bellwether ahead of the 2022 midterms and a judgement on President Joe Biden. They\u2019re also deciding whether to keep legislative Democrats in office, a choice that will determine how much statewide power the party will yield and reveal voters\u2019 satisfaction with the crush of progressive laws enacted in the last two years.<\/p>\n
Virginia might be increasingly blue at the presidential level, but Democrats only came to control both chambers of the state legislature in 2019, after nearly two decades of mostly Republican control. Next month, they could lose control of both the governor\u2019s mansion and the House, all in one day.<\/p>\n
Republicans have cast the election as a referendum on the left\u2019s agenda, not just in Richmond but also in Washington. Whoever wins will be the party that best motivates their base and turns out people to vote in an off year. <\/p>\n
State House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn said she is \u201cmaking sure everyone knows all we’ve accomplished, why it matters who governs, why it’s important to make sure that we maintain if not grow our majority.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cWe’ve got a story to tell,\u201d she said in an interview. \u201cThere’s no doubt in my mind that Virginia elections will have national implications at every level of the ballot.” <\/p>\n
Democrats spent the last two years passing a long list of sweeping policies. They implemented criminal justice reforms, legalized marijuana, expanded voting rights, raised the minimum wage, enacted gun control measures, repealed the death penalty and set a goal of getting Virginia electric utilities to 100 percent renewable generation by 2050. <\/p>\n
Down-ballot Democrats contend that those policies are popular with voters and believe it\u2019s what will get them reelected in November. State House Democrats have raked in more than $36.9 million <\/a>this election cycle, dwarfing Republicans’ total of $17.6 million.<\/p>\n But Republicans are jumping on all that activity by framing Democrats as radical liberals who reflect the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress. The Republican State Leadership Committee in August launched a six-figure television ad campaign<\/a> targeting six Democratic incumbents. Those ads attacked Democrats on issues like increased costs of living due to rising inflation, rising violent crime rates and \u201cpoliticization of public education.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cThe Democrats, when they took control of the General Assembly, they kind of went nuts,\u201d said Garren Shipley, communications director for House Minority Leader Todd Gilbert. \u201cThey made the mistake of thinking Twitter was their actual district. They locked into this massive spree of all sorts of left-wing things.\u201d <\/p>\n Republicans portray Democrats as the \u201cdefund-the-police\u201d party, an issue they say stirs up their base. Campaigns have zeroed in on the criminal justice reform package that put in place changes to policing practices such as banning no-knock warrants, requiring minimum training standards for police and strengthening the decertification process for law enforcement.<\/p>\n Yet no enacted policies from Democrats in the legislature involved defunding police departments, and the Covid-19 federal spending relief plan approved by the legislature included bonuses for sheriff\u2019s deputies, corrections officers and police officers.<\/p>\n Republicans say they\u2019re confident that they\u2019ll be able to pick up at least one seat and hopeful they\u2019ll gain a handful by the end of election night. And they insist that, while taking the chamber is unlikely, it\u2019s still within reach. <\/p>\n Virginia\u2019s election cycles have fallen into a predictable pattern that has encouraged Republicans this fall. In the year after a presidential election, the party that doesn\u2019t hold the White House performs well at the ballot box. <\/p>\n But there\u2019s a notable exception that\u2019s relevant to the current governor\u2019s race: While former President Barack Obama was in office, Republican Ken Cuccinelli lost in 2013 to Democrat Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking the governorship again.<\/p>\n Democrats are defending just a five-seat advantage in the state House. The most competitive races are in Hampton Roads, which includes Norfolk, Virginia Beach and Newport News, a suburban-dense region with a strong military presence. A few Northern Virginia districts are expected to be tight as well. <\/p>\n \u201cWe know it won\u2019t be easy,\u201d said Jessica Post, executive director of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. \u201cThis is an uncertain political environment. We are trying to leverage that same energy we had in 2019.\u201d <\/p>\n Yet the close nature of these races means there\u2019s also a chance Democrats could see gains. The party is focused on flipping about four GOP-held seats, like one district in the suburbs of Richmond that went to a Republican by less than 1 percentage point. <\/p>\n Guy, whose district abuts Askew\u2019s, said at a Sunday gathering of campaign staff and volunteers that she\u2019s \u201ccautiously optimistic\u201d about Democrats\u2019 chances. Earlier that day, Askew attended a second church service with Guy, along with the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, Hala Ayala, showing how Democrats are banding together in the mad dash to election day.<\/p>\n \u201cLet\u2019s win this thing, because it\u2019s right there,\u201d Askew told the group of roughly two dozen who gathered in the parking lot of a state Democratic Party office before splitting up to canvas nearby neighborhoods. \u201cIt\u2019s within our grasp.\u201d <\/p>\n Askew\u2019s Republican challenger, Karen Greenhalgh, founded a custom cabinet manufacturing company and manages crisis pregnancy centers. She\u2019s raised $430,000 during her campaign.<\/p>\n Four hours north of Virginia Beach, up in Loudoun County, Democratic state Del. Wendy Gooditis has the challenge of appeasing two different regions within her district: One side is rural and more conservative and the other is suburban and more progressive. She\u2019s facing Nick Clemente, the Republican candidate who has brought in the most fundraising dollars at $936,000. He\u2019s running on a platform focused on increasing funding for mental health services, keeping schools open in the pandemic and maintaining funding for law enforcement. Clemente stands with mainstream Republicans on social issues like opposing vaccine mandates and using taxpayer funds for abortion.<\/a><\/p>\n Despite those opposing geographic and political factions, Gooditis voted with the Democratic Party 99 percent of the time, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. She\u2019s hoping to convince all voters within her district that Democrats have their best interests in mind, not just on local issues but ones capturing national attention, like the Covid-19 pandemic and protection of women\u2019s reproductive rights.<\/p>\n In an interview, she referenced the \u201cDon\u2019t Texas my Virginia” slogan that\u2019s spread in the wake of Texas passing the nation\u2019s most restrictive abortion law. \u201cThat hits home with a lot of people,\u201d she said. \u201cMy opponent is on the opposite side of that.\u201d<\/p>\n Up and down the ballot, Democrats are framing this election as a choice between a progressive future and a regressive past if Republicans take over.<\/p>\n \u201cThere\u2019s a question about who do you want to lead the state?\u2019\u201d Post said. \u201cRepublicans are not presenting a moderate vision for Virginia.\u201d<\/p>\n Virginia is heavily influenced by the national political environment. Democrats are proudly linking themselves to the Biden administration, a strategy that could pose a risk as Congress struggles to pass central pieces of Biden\u2019s agenda and the president\u2019s approval rating has dropped by double digits since he carried Virginia by 10 points in the presidential election.<\/p>\n For those reasons, Tucker Martin, a GOP consultant who worked for former Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell, believes it will be hard for Democrats to overcome that environment by championing specific pieces of policies. <\/p>\n \u201cThis race is being driven by Joe Biden\u2019s approval rating and Trump being out of the White House,\u201d he said. \u201cThose two meta-factors are the big movers.\u201d<\/p>\n Democrats say they\u2019re not worried about how Biden\u2019s slipping popularity may hurt them and maintain this election is just as much about what they accomplished in Richmond as what\u2019s happening in D.C. <\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019ve been happy to celebrate when the administration has done well. I\u2019ve been willing to talk about when things haven\u2019t gone so well,\u201d said state Del. Dan Helmer, an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran whose district represents parts of northwestern Prince William and Fairfax counties. He won in 2019 by less than 1,500 votes.<\/p>\n \u201cMy focus at the end of the day is on Virginia. Again, I think the work we\u2019ve done in Virginia speaks for itself.\u201d <\/p>\nGaming the electoral map<\/h5>\n