Source: Politics<\/p>\n
The last time Donald Trump picked a running mate, he made a conventional choice in Mike Pence \u2014 a relatively safe decision with traditional presidential ticket-balancing in mind.<\/p>\n
But as Trump gears up for a 2024 bid to recapture the White House, the nascent thinking at Mar-a-Lago surrounding his potential vice president is considerably different. According to conversations with a dozen Trump advisers and close associates, the former president doesn\u2019t feel bound by geographic or ideological considerations \u2014 or any standard political rules at all.<\/p>\n
Those familiar with his thinking say his selection will be determined by two factors that rate highest in Trump\u2019s estimation: unquestioned loyalty and an embrace of the former president\u2019s baseless claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him.<\/p>\n
\u201cA lot of times, a presidential candidate will pick a running mate to balance out wings of the party. But with Trump, that\u2019s not the issue. He is the party, basically. It\u2019s so united behind him,\u201d said John McLaughlin, one of Trump\u2019s campaign pollsters. \u201cSo his choice, if he runs, will come down to what he wants. It would be a much more personal decision this time.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump hasn\u2019t made his 2024 bid official. He\u2019s expected to make a decision after the 2022 midterms. But he has been building a campaign-in-waiting that is already laying groundwork, and the question of a running mate is surfacing with increasing frequency.<\/p>\n
He\u2019s name-dropped<\/a> Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as one possible running mate. Veepstakes speculation rose among insiders who saw him interact recently with South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo at his Mar-a-Lago club.<\/p>\n \u201cThey\u2019re all begging me. They all come here,\u201d Trump boasted to one adviser, who shared the account anonymously with POLITICO.<\/p>\n The issue of a running mate, advisers and allies say, has taken on a new dimension in Trump\u2019s mind as he stews over his decision to pick Pence in 2016, only to watch the vice president help certify the election of Joe Biden as president in January. Though it was Pence\u2019s legal responsibility, Trump considered him disloyal and recently went so far as to say it was \u201ccommon sense\u201d that the Jan. 6 Capitol rioters chanted \u201chang Mike Pence.\u201d<\/p>\n The considerations that led Trump to name Pence as his ticket mate in 2016 \u2014 an evangelical conservative, Pence was a Rust Belt governor at the time of his selection \u2014 are no longer as relevant, Trump\u2019s advisers say. They say Trump is far more likely to go with his gut instinct next time around. Trump partly relied on his daughter and son-in-law, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, during the selection process last time, but the two are not expected to play the same role if he runs in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cOnce you get past those two issues \u2014 loyalty and Trump going more with his gut \u2014 Trump has a lot of leeway in who he would pick,\u201d said Tony Fabrizio, Trump\u2019s lead pollster in 2016 and 2020.<\/p>\n \u201cHe’s not necessarily looking to balance the ticket geographically, but what he can do is pick to balance gender, race, ethnicity \u2014 a lot of different lanes there,\u201d said Fabrizio, who is polling for a Trump-affiliated super PAC. \u201cIt could be everything from a Tim Scott in South Carolina to an Asian American in California, somebody Hispanic in Texas. There are so many choices and paths. And there\u2019s lots of time to go.\u201d<\/p>\n Those familiar with Trump\u2019s thinking say his prospective vice president selection would likely draw from three general lanes of candidates: women, conservatives of color or a trusted adviser \u2014 or a \u201cconsigliere,\u201d as one adviser described it.<\/p>\n Scott, the first elected Black senator from the South since the Reconstruction era, recently met with Trump in Palm Beach.<\/p>\n \u201cIt was a really warm interaction,\u201d said one Republican observer in the room. \u201cScott was appropriately deferential without being gross, like some people are. What he said was thoughtful, and it was appreciated by the president. There was definitely chemistry there.\u201d<\/p>\n Scott, who is running for reelection in 2022, has proved to be a prodigious fundraiser as well, pulling in $8.4 million in the last quarter. He hasn\u2019t denied his own interest in a presidential bid in 2024, but he has said he wouldn\u2019t run if Trump does. The South Carolina senator has already begun visiting other early presidential nominating states like Iowa and New Hampshire.<\/p>\n Longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone said the shadow presidential campaigns from Scott and so many others double as a sort of vice-presidential tryout for Trump.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is an audition. And Trump is paying attention,\u201d Stone said. \u201cThere\u2019s no question that people running for president are really running for vice president all the time. The key is to make it look like you\u2019re not running for vice president.\u201d<\/p>\n Within Trump\u2019s orbit, there is a belief that a Black running mate could eat into Democratic margins in key swing states, and that Hispanic voters are showing more signs of being up for grabs \u2014 especially in crucial battlegrounds like Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Texas.<\/p>\n Among some Trump advisers, Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nu\u00f1ez is viewed as a promising future star. They say Trump likes her and raved about her speaking role at his nominating convention last summer. But her public and political footprint have been limited under DeSantis, who\u2019s widely seen as an heir apparent to Trump. The two men have a cordial and respectful public relationship, but privately Trump sees the younger DeSantis as a potential rival.<\/p>\n When Trump recently mused about picking DeSantis as a running mate, many in Trump circles said he was putting the governor in his place, not seriously floating him as a name.<\/p>\n \u201cTrump feels he made DeSantis. Trump sees him as a competitor. And he\u2019s not going to have someone with better numbers,\u201d one Trump adviser said.<\/p>\n Yet there is one wrinkle that could potentially limit either Florida politician from getting the nod: a quirk in the Constitution<\/a> that suggests a presidential candidate would face a unique hurdle with a running mate who hails from the same state.<\/p>\n The former president is also less likely to be concerned with Florida because he perceives it as Trump country after his three-point win last year in his newly adopted home state. And he\u2019s not as concerned about ginning up conservative turnout as he was in 2016, given his strong standing with the party base.<\/p>\n However, Trump is keenly aware that he had a problem with women voters, increasing the likelihood that he might look to strike a gender balance on his ticket. Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn have risen in the way-too-early veepstakes chatter because both are \u201ctough as nails and conservative as hell,\u201d one adviser to Trump said.<\/p>\n \u201cReynolds and Blackburn are definitely in the hunt,\u201d the source added.<\/p>\n One early vice presidential favorite \u2014 Nikki Haley, Trump\u2019s former United Nations ambassador and a former South Carolina governor \u2014 appears to have been frozen out after she criticized him over the Jan. 6 riot<\/a>. There\u2019s also relatively little enthusiasm among Trump insiders, they say, for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, who was being advised by Trump\u2019s former campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, until he left the public eye amid a harassment scandal<\/a>. <\/p>\n If Trump picks another white male as a running mate, those who know his thinking say it\u2019s likely that individual would play the role of a close adviser, a super chief of staff of sorts. That could even include Mark Meadows, Trump\u2019s last White House chief of staff, said one Republican who recently discussed the vice presidential issue with Trump in passing.<\/p>\n \u201cDon\u2019t rule out a consigliere lane for vice president, a Meadows-type,\u201d the source said. \u201cThere were times when Pence occupied that role. No one wants to admit it now. But I observed it. But obviously Jan. 6 changed everything in that relationship.\u201d<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s former acting national security director, Ric Grenell, has also risen in the estimation of Trump insiders, as has another potential presidential candidate, Mike Pompeo, who was Trump\u2019s secretary of state and Central Intelligence Agency director.<\/p>\n \u201cDon\u2019t sleep on Ric. Trump loves him, and unlike Pompeo or anyone else, he has no interest in running for president. That\u2019s a big issue for Trump,\u201d another adviser said of Grenell, who recently joined the board of directors for Trump\u2019s super PAC.<\/p>\n Michael Caputo, a former Trump campaign staffer who worked in his administration, said it\u2019s hard to forecast whom Trump might pick because there\u2019s so much time to go. Whomever is chosen \u201cwill have to be loyal, and they\u2019ll have to denounce what happened in 2020. If they don\u2019t, they\u2019re disqualified.\u201d<\/p>\n Kellyanne Conway, a top Trump adviser, echoed Caputo.<\/p>\n \u201cWho should he pick?\u201d she asked. \u201cWhoever he wants.\u201d<\/p>\n