Source: Politics<\/p>\n
Democrats aren\u2019t just eager for Donald Trump to cannonball into the 2024 presidential race before the fall midterms. Across the country, they are actively plotting ways to immediately capitalize on a pre-November announcement.<\/p>\n
Campaigns and officials at major Democratic outfits are planning to capture the anticipated cash windfall that would come their way should Trump announce he\u2019s making another run at the White House. Candidates also are exploring ways to exploit Trump\u2019s premature entry to energize despondent base voters and coalesce independents and suburb-dwellers who have soured on the party over stubbornly high inflation.<\/p>\n
Since leaving office, Trump\u2019s lies about a stolen election and grievance-filled tirades against disloyal \u201cRINOS\u201d have continued unabated. While he\u2019s never fully receded from the national stage, a formal declaration that he\u2019s running would dominate the media landscape and \u2014 many Democrats expect \u2014 serve as a major distraction for down-ballot Republicans.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt puts in perspective what\u2019s at stake, shows that the Republican Party is still extreme and helps set up the contrast,\u201d said Cedric Richmond, a former White House senior adviser now at the Democratic National Committee. \u201cDemocrats need to home in on what they stand for \u2014 from their agenda to their values and contrast it with how extreme the other side is and what they want to do.\u201d<\/p>\n
Having Trump out of the wings as the GOP\u2019s frontrunner and formal standard-bearer will sharpen the stakes \u201cand it will help Democrats,\u201d Richmond added.<\/p>\n
Few singular political factors could still upend the midterm landscape like Trump. Inside the White House and among close allies, there\u2019s a sense that the former president would alter voters\u2019 views of Biden and Democrats and help calm intraparty disappointment and turmoil they view as misplaced and unproductive.<\/p>\n
Recent polls show considerable doubts among Democrats over Biden\u2019s own political future, but administration officials are confident the president won\u2019t face a serious challenge from within his own party in 2024. Just this week, a number of next-generation Democratic governors who have been outspoken on issues, and even critical of their own party, came to the White House. The visits may have been coincidental. But they provided the president\u2019s team with helpful imagery \u2014 supporting him as the leader of the party \u2014 and led one prominent governor, Gavin Newsom of California, to say he thinks Biden should seek reelection, with his full support. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker made similar pronouncements, before extolling Biden\u2019s \u201cpassion\u201d for addressing gun violence.<\/p>\n
The president himself has been clear he views Trump as an existential threat. In a TV interview in Israel, Biden said he wasn\u2019t predicting a rematch, but \u201cI would not be disappointed.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cI think he runs and I think he wins,\u201d Richmond said of Biden. \u201cAnd I am not sure anyone else can win.\u201d<\/p>\n
Trump\u2019s calculations for a pre-midterm announcement are multifaceted, spanning from legal pressure bearing down from the Justice Department to his declining standing in the GOP and footsteps from younger would-be rivals with far less baggage.<\/p>\n
In interviews, more than two dozen Democratic officials including Biden advisers, party committees, members of Congress and the consulting class described a Trump announcement before the midterms as, at a minimum, a positive development for the party, if not a game-changer. Republicans who have tried to manage their ties to Trump will have new reasons to be asked about him. Some may have to decide whether to attend events or rallies alongside him.<\/p>\n
It would also strain the party\u2019s desire to keep the focus on economic issues as questions would naturally arise about the very controversies that continue to surround the former president: from his election denialism, to his efforts to stop the certification of Joe Biden\u2019s win, to the intersection of his business dealings and politics. Asked if they knew of a single 2022 campaign or GOP consultant that wanted Trump to declare before November, a top Republican operative replied, \u201cLol. No.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democratic campaigns are pre-drafting fundraising pitches that center on the danger Trump\u2019s return represents and using him to target suburban voters who are considering lashing out at Biden over the economy but weary of emboldening GOP election lies and conspiracies.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s bad for them because he takes so much oxygen out of the room,\u201d said John Anzalone, a longtime Biden pollster. Already, the dynamic for fall campaigns has been reshaped by the Supreme Court\u2019s overturning of Roe v. Wade and the Jan. 6 committee hearings into the insurrection. \u201cMore people think he should be charged with a crime. Individual things about his actions and comments have come out. All that stuff has hurt him. In general, he will want to be front and center and that\u2019s not good for Republicans because the public is against him.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo come on in,\u201d Anzalone prodded. \u201cJump in the pool.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrats stressed that their desire to see Trump declare his run is predicated on the belief that it\u2019s only a matter of time before he does and that it would benefit them more if the announcement came before a likely tough midterm. Trump told New York Magazine<\/a> that he has made up his mind about whether to run and that the only question is whether he will do it before the fall election. He\u2019s said to be eyeing a September announcement, the Washington Post reported<\/a> Thursday, the latest in a series of recent stories focused on his timing and preparations.<\/p>\n \u201cEveryone I talk to is desperately hoping for it \u2014 desperately. I don\u2019t know anybody who is not hoping for it,\u201d said a Democratic operative in frequent touch with the White House. \u201cWhile it has been good for my mental health that Trump is off Twitter, it also has put him to the side a little bit.\u201d<\/p>\n Not every Democrat is openly rooting for an early Trump announcement \u2014 or plans to do much with it should it come. Some candidates in close House districts or down ballot statewide races maintain they don\u2019t want to talk about the former president or even the MAGA movement, choosing instead to focus on the economy, affordability and other local concerns. Their feelings are echoed by some Republicans who view an early declaration as a wash.<\/p>\n \u201cI think if people were going to try to use him in a positive or negative way in November that would already happen based off of his endorsements in the primary,\u201d said Josh Novotney, a Republican lobbyist and former adviser to Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. And Trump himself, Novotney added, \u201cis not on the ballot.\u201d<\/p>\n Yet Democrats don\u2019t need to invoke Trump on their own to benefit from him politically. And the idea that GOP candidates will be able to evade Trump\u2019s long shadow strikes others as wishful thinking. Sen. Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat, characterized the impact on Republican candidates up and down the midterm ballot as \u201cseismic\u201d \u2014 whether they are trying to distance themselves from Trump or not.<\/p>\n \u201cEvery candidate now running as a Republican in 2022 has to decide whether they embrace the MAGA movement and all the lies, deceit and efforts to overturn the election or not. That\u2019s going to make it more difficult for Republicans,\u201d Casey said.<\/p>\n Still, Trump formally filing papers to run can\u2019t be viewed by Democrats as a saving grace. Casey said he thinks his party needs to lean harder into attempts to rein in high prices.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have to hold Republicans accountable for stopping our efforts to help families in an inflationary economy,\u201d he said. \u201cOver and over again, they had a chance to do something to help families get through this difficult time with prices and inflation. They’ve done nothing.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, in Pennsylvania and elsewhere there have been an early efforts not to lean solely on Trump and the specter of his reemergence. An adviser to Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is facing off against Republican celebrity TV doctor Mehmet Oz, contended that \u201cTrump isn\u2019t the scariest part. Everything that comes after Trump is even scarier.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe are very focused on our own race and explaining to people what we need to do for them,\u201d said Rebecca Katz, the Fetterman consultant. \u201cIt\u2019s not enough to just be against something. You have to give people something to vote for.\u201d<\/p>\n In other races \u2014 such as the Nevada contest between Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and GOP challenger Adam Laxalt \u2014 Republican contenders are so closely linked to Trump that it may prove immaterial whether or not he announces before the midterms.<\/p>\n Instead, Democrats anticipate Trump\u2019s presence to be felt more acutely in the House where candidates typically aren\u2019t as well known.<\/p>\n \u201cHe\u2019s a real anchor around the ankles for Republicans with the exact type of suburban, independent voters, especially women, that they\u2019re trying to win back,\u201d said Jesse Ferguson, a veteran Democratic strategist.<\/p>\n He argued not every Republican will be able to pull off the high wire act that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin did last year when both Trump and abortion were used against him \u2014 and Trump wasn\u2019t so present. \u201cThe more that Trump is front and center, the harder it is for the GOP to replicate what they did in Virginia in 2021.\u201d<\/p>\n