Source: Politics<\/p>\n
House Republicans emerged from a closed-door conference meeting in the basement of the Capitol on Wednesday night projecting optimism about the progress they made on two spending plans that have bedeviled them all summer: the Defense appropriations bill, and a continuing resolution to fund the government beyond midnight on Oct. 1.<\/p>\n
But even as Speaker Kevin McCarthy boasted \u201cwe\u2019re in a good place\u201d \u2014 a sentiment echoed by other top Republicans \u2014 in the cold glare of daylight, that celebration looks premature at best, and serious doubts remain about the strategy at play.<\/p>\n
It remains totally unclear whether House Republicans actually have the votes to pass the Defense appropriations bill, let alone the new continuing resolution. And, most importantly, they have no plan for what to do when the Senate ignores their latest spending gambit and sends back a \u201cclean\u201d CR without all the new policy riders added to sweeten the deal for conservative holdouts.<\/p>\n
The truth is, we\u2019re just at the start of what\u2019s going to be a very long, ugly, drawn-out war \u2014 a fact that longtime appropriator (and realist) Rep. Steve Womack (R-Ark.) hinted at when he left the meeting last night.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe all get wrapped around the axle about what we\u2019re doing right now, but \u2026 eventually the Senate is going to get an opportunity to weigh in, and they\u2019re going to send something back to us, and it\u2019s going to look a lot different,\u201d Womack told us. \u201cThen we\u2019ll have another bigger decision to make \u2014 and that\u2019s when the most emotional, strategic vote will have to take place.\u201d<\/p>\n
Adding to McCarthy\u2019s complications is that former President Donald Trump appeared to come out in opposition to the new CR plan late last night. In a social media post<\/a>, he pushed for Republicans to \u201cdefund all aspects of Crooked Joe Biden\u2019s weaponized Government,\u201d calling the Oct. 1 funding deadline the \u201clast chance to defund these political prosecutions against me and other Patriots.\u201d<\/p>\n Meanwhile, centrist Republicans like Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) blasted the GOP conference for living in La La Land. As POLITICO reported Wednesday night<\/a>, the Texas Republican is a no on the CR because \u201cnone of these ideas have any chance of being taken up in the Senate and signed into law.\u201d<\/p>\n That said, two of the five hardliners who blocked the Defense bill earlier this week changed their tune in last night\u2019s meeting, meaning that Republicans should have the votes to clear the legislation\u2019s rule as soon as today and take up the Pentagon funding bill that should have easily passed their chamber months ago.<\/p>\n And there are also positive signs for the new CR that was hashed out in the meeting. While Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) argued that at least seven House Republicans would never vote for a continuing resolution \u2014 a number that fellow \u201cno\u201d vote Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) later echoed on CNN<\/a> \u2014 Gaetz was rebuked by Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who admonished him for speaking on others\u2019 behalf. Good, a conservative and previously a holdout on the CR, indicated that the new deal floated by leadership would move him to yes.<\/p>\n So what are the new terms of this deal McCarthy ironed out in real time in front of his members to unstick the spending snag? Once again, moderates who didn\u2019t want to gut spending further got rolled.<\/p>\n Republican leaders agreed to a CR that includes steeper cuts, as demanded by conservatives, and would fund the government at $1.471 trillion. In addition to the border crackdown measures already included, a new sweetener was added: a commission that will look at cutting spending and reducing the debt in the future. Overall, the new topline number for long term House appropriations bills was $1.526 trillion \u2014 or $64 billion less than the topline McCarthy agreed to in the debt ceiling deal with Biden.<\/p>\n The problem for McCarthy is that it is unclear if Republicans can pass their newly floated CR plan, especially if Trump\u2019s late night screed rallies conservatives who want to defund the Justice Department. That proposition, of course, is a total nonstarter for many centrist House Republicans who are already squeamish about spending cuts. And yet MAGA-minded lawmakers are already using Trump\u2019s battle cry to push for more, including Gaetz, who blasted out Trump\u2019s message on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, and added, \u201cHold the line.\u201d<\/a><\/p>\n There was also no discussion about the elephant in the room, which is that none of this is ever going to pass muster with Democrats. Some conservatives, in fact, left the room with the impression that McCarthy is going to fight for the Republican CR and win some sort of concessions.<\/p>\n Case in point: We caught up with Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.), who opposed the previous draft. While she didn\u2019t commit to voting yes on the new version, she seemed at least open to it \u2014 though also had a warning for McCarthy.<\/p>\n \u201cIf he is not willing to fight \u2014 fight and win \u2014 then he is going to fail Republicans,\u201d Spartz told POLITICO\u2019s Playbook. \u201cHe is going to be tested one more time. From my perspective, he\u2019s already failed us twice. The third time, I\u2019m done. \u2026 I judge people not on what they say, but the results. We need to win something.\u201d<\/p>\n But conservatives like Spartz are in for a rude awakening. While McCarthy was able to leverage GOP unity to extract concessions from Democrats in the debt ceiling negotiations, when it comes to government shutdowns, the side making the policy demands rarely notches any victories<\/a>.<\/p>\n What\u2019s more, Senate Republicans \u2014 and even some Republicans in House leadership \u2014 privately acknowledge that eventually, McCarthy is going to have to revert to the topline numbers he originally hashed out with White House last spring.<\/p>\n And when he does, the ugly mood in the House will return \u2014 and probably get even worse.<\/p>\n Like this content? Consider signing up for POLITICO’s Playbook newsletter. <\/p>\n