Source: Politics<\/p>\n
The nation\u2019s suburbs are moving toward Democrats. But not on Long Island.<\/p>\n
Republicans have a three-year winning streak in the close-in suburbs east of New York City \u2014 places that rejected then-President Donald Trump in 2020 but have turned red amid concerns about crime and, more recently, immigration.<\/p>\n
Next week\u2019s special election to replace ousted Rep. George Santos will test whether they can maintain their recent stranglehold on those New York suburbs. Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi is running against Republican Mazi Melesa Pilip. Both independent and partisan polling shows the race is tight.<\/p>\n
For Democrats, a win would \u2014 among other things \u2014 suggest a way to overcome ongoing Republican attacks over crime and immigration, which they concede are a major problem for their party\u2019s image.<\/p>\n
\u201cVoters in this particular district see headlines several times a week about migrants being bused into New York City,\u201d said former Rep. Steve Israel (D-N.Y.), who held the seat before retiring in 2016. \u201cPeople on Long Island really do have the perception that migrants are flooding New York City, and the border isn\u2019t under control.\u201d<\/p>\n
If Democrats are successful, it may be simply because they are building on nationwide trends among upscale suburban voters. New York\u2019s 3rd Congressional District isn\u2019t just suburban: It has some of the most affluent and educated voters in the country. It ranks 16th in median earnings, and 30th in the percentage of adults with college degrees.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s what\u2019s made Republican wins there so confounding for Democrats, who hold nearly every other district with similar metrics on education and income.<\/p>\n
New York\u2019s 3rd District \u2014 roughly three-quarters of which is in suburban Nassau County with the other quarter in the outer New York City borough of Queens \u2014 is one of the 11 districts Republicans won in the last election that ranks in the top 50 for adults with college degrees. And GOP candidates only won two of the top 20 districts in median earnings, New York\u2019s 3rd included, in 2022.<\/p>\n
If Republicans can pull off a victory, it will offer a blueprint for a suburban comeback elsewhere.<\/p>\n
That doesn\u2019t mean the result of next week’s special election will be a perfect bellwether for November. That\u2019s because these particular suburbs may just be very different from others in the country. The district \u2014 and Long Island more broadly \u2014 has been racing toward Republicans at a time when Democrats are increasingly dominant in suburbs in other parts of the country.<\/p>\n
In addition to Santos\u2019 victory, Republicans swept the other three House seats on Long Island, including a neighboring seat also based in Nassau County that voted for now-President Joe Biden by 13 points in 2020 but elected Republican Anthony D\u2019Esposito<\/a> to Congress in 2022.<\/p>\n Races for state and local offices on Long Island have followed a similar pattern. Then-Rep. Lee Zeldin won both Nassau and Suffolk counties by double digits in 2022, and the GOP now controls the county executive offices in both counties, flipping each seat in the past three years.<\/p>\n Some GOP strategists point to a pattern of improved Republican performance in blue states \u2014 with increasing dissatisfaction with Democratic control \u2014 since Trump left office. In addition to the Long Island seats Republicans flipped a couple of House seats in the 2022 midterms in places like California and New Jersey, even as they struggled to make inroads in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n The only better-educated and more affluent district than New York\u2019s 3rd that Republicans currently hold is also in a New York City suburb: the Northern New Jersey seat currently represented by Rep. Tom Kean Jr.<\/a>, who won narrowly in 2022.<\/p>\n \u201cOur wins the last two cycles have come overwhelmingly in all sorts of blue states, and in the suburbs outside of big cities in those blue states,\u201d said Dan Conston, the president of Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, which is set to spend $4.3 million on advertising in the district, data from AdImpact show. That\u2019s a hefty sum, in large part because New York is the most expensive media market in the country.<\/p>\n Close observers in both parties returned to the subjects of crime and immigration as the key issues in the New York race, and the campaign ad spending confirms that. Every ad Republicans have aired in the New York race has focused on immigration, according to AdImpact.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s part of the country where they\u2019re not even close to the Mexican border, and it\u2019s the number-one issue,\u201d said John McLaughlin, a Republican pollster with extensive experience on Long Island. \u201cThey\u2019re really worried about crime, and they\u2019re saying it\u2019s about immigration.\u201d<\/p>\n